WaPo Article Contends "Zero" Correlation Between State Gun Laws and State Homicide Rates [View all]
The WaPo has had a number of articles relating to gun control/violence since the shooting in Oregon. Eugene Volokh, a law professor at UCLA, had an opinion piece today in which he contends there is "zero correlation between state homicide rate and state gun laws." The article can be found here - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/10/06/zero-correlation-between-state-homicide-rate-and-state-gun-laws/.
He explains that his methodology examines whether states with more stringent gun laws have lower overall homicide rates -- not just gun homicides, but total homicides -- because if you enact strict gun laws and just see a rise in knife murders then you've not really made an overall difference. Anyway, I'm sure that this article won't sway one side or the other but found it interesting and the conclusion unsurprising.
The correlation between the homicide rate and Brady score in all 51 jurisdictions is +.032 (on a scale of -1 to +1), which means that states with more gun restrictions on average have very slightly higher homicide rates, though the tendency is so small as to be essentially zero. (If you omit the fatal gun accident rates, then the correlation would be +.065, which would make the more gun-restricting states look slightly worse; but again, the correlation would be small enough to be essentially zero, given all the other possible sources of variation.) If we use the National Journal data (adding the columns for each state, counting 1 for each dark blue, which refers to broad restrictions, 0.5 for each light blue, which refers to medium restrictions, and 0 for each grey, which refers to no or light restrictions), the results are similar: +0.017 or +0.051 if one omits the fatal gun accident rates. You can also run the correlation yourself on my Excel spreadsheet.
He concludes:
But since people have been talking about simple two-variable correlations between gun laws and crime, I thought it would be helpful to note this correlation or, rather, absence of correlation.