It is hard to make a case that the assault weapons ban was decisive in 1994.
The law certainly enraged many N.R.A. members and might explain the loss of certain Democratic seats. However, there were other major factors in the Democrats 1994 loss, starting with perceived Democratic arrogance and corruption (overdrafts at the House bank came to symbolize that).
Add to that voter unhappiness with Mr. Clintons budget, his health care fiasco, the Republican Partys success in recruiting appealing candidates, and that ingenious Republican vehicle for nationalizing the elections known as the Contract With America. The contract, by the way, did not mention guns.
Mr. Clintons successful 1996 re-election campaign actually stressed his gun control achievements. James and Sarah Brady spoke in prime time at the 96 Democratic convention, and Clinton campaign ads trumpeted his role in enacting the assault weapons ban and the 93 Brady law requiring background checks for gun buyers.
Those who blame the assault weapons ban for the Democrats defeat in 1994 also tend to finger gun control for Al Gores loss in the 2000 presidential race especially his failure to carry his home state of Tennessee.
But Mr. Gores bigger Tennessee problem was his failure to seriously compete there by providing adequate resources to answer N.R.A. distortions, for instance, and matching George W. Bushs numerous visits. Largely obscured by the 2000 presidential drama was the loss in Floridas Senate race of an N.R.A. stalwart, Bill McCollum, to a consistent Democratic supporter of gun control, Bill Nelson.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/09/opinion/09sat4.html
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