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onehandle

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8. Think Progress: Largest Gun Study Ever: More Guns, More Murder

Mon Oct 12, 2015, 05:37 PM

Oct 2015

With all this preliminary work in hand, the authors ran a series of regressions to see what effect the overall national decline in firearm ownership from 1981 to 2010 had on gun homicides. The result was staggering: “for each 1 percentage point increase in proportion of household gun ownership,” Siegel et al. found, “firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9″ percent. A one standard deviation change in firearm ownership shifted gun murders by a staggering 12.9 percent.

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2013/09/13/2617131/largest-gun-study-guns-murder

It's my understanding that murder is a 'crime.'

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What Caused the Two-Decade Dip in Crime Rates? Not �Good Guys with Guns.� [View all] onehandle Oct 2015 OP

I suspect that pretty much everybody knew that anyway. There's a carload of varibles regarding crime BlueJazz Oct 2015 #1

There is evidence a drop in violence crime Jesus Malverde Oct 2015 #38

abortion rights JI7 Oct 2015 #2

Freakonomics pointed this out a few years ago Ex Lurker Oct 2015 #13

+1 uponit7771 Oct 2015 #56

I think you are right. CTyankee Oct 2015 #25

Yes, fewer kids growing up knowing they were unwanted Warpy Oct 2015 #27

When you say "fewer kids growing up knowing they were unwanted" TeddyR Oct 2015 #30

No, it's yours. Nice straw man. Warpy Oct 2015 #34

Nope Spider Jerusalem Oct 2015 #52

hmmmm uponit7771 Oct 2015 #57

Rule of thumb: when Conservatives think they... WhaTHellsgoingonhere Oct 2015 #63

Other rule of thumb... Wounded Bear Oct 2015 #75

Nothing new, here. One thing the drop in crime DOES suggest: Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #3

Think Progress: Largest Gun Study Ever: More Guns, More Murder onehandle Oct 2015 #8

Explain: Murders down 20 yrs, civilian guns up 20 yrs. nt Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #17

the ammosexuals are hoarding larger and larger arsenals. geek tragedy Oct 2015 #18

I don't believe that for a moment. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #21

This may come as a shock to you but survey researchers track resistance rates Gormy Cuss Oct 2015 #26

I also have trouble believing there is 7000 DGU a day. Bullshit. Nt Logical Oct 2015 #47

As well you should. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #62

Trust me, that's not a shock. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #60

So you're aware of randomized response, for example Gormy Cuss Oct 2015 #66

Yep. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #69

Because gun nuts are paranoid of the Feds taking their guns! Nt Logical Oct 2015 #44

But more guns, even in fewer households, is supposed to lead to more stolen guns NickB79 Oct 2015 #31

And you can prove this how? GGJohn Oct 2015 #33

The same opinion polls show increased opposition geek tragedy Oct 2015 #35

Proving increased opposition to gun control is easier than proving decreased firearm ownership, GGJohn Oct 2015 #36

That doesn't make sense. geek tragedy Oct 2015 #39

As I said, GGJohn Oct 2015 #40

Among my friends, family and colleagues discussions of what to do... Sen. Walter Sobchak Oct 2015 #46

Ok, but that's just a few people, GGJohn Oct 2015 #48

I doubt very many non-gun owning X'ers and Millenials find grandpa's gun... Sen. Walter Sobchak Oct 2015 #53

If one ignores Illinois this might appear to be the case. beevul Oct 2015 #54

Again: "More guns = more crimes." Yours is a different topic. Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #68

Percentage of population that owns guns has declined though in the past 30+ years Kaleva Oct 2015 #20

Please see my response to geek tragedy, above... Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #22

One would have to take your ancedotal evidence with a far larger truck of salt. Kaleva Oct 2015 #64

That's not the source of my opinion on this point, though. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #65

Survey doesn't say that the number of gun owners is shrinking. Kaleva Oct 2015 #70

Problems: The anti-gun meme is "more guns = more crimes." Correct? Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #67

By looking at the Gallup poll, the Economist poll, and FOID data Kang Colby Oct 2015 #73

The spikes in gun-related crime began in the late 60s before declining significantly Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #74

People carry for SD, not for effecting social policy. nt Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #4

As long as more guns =/= more gun crime than what's the big deal? nt hack89 Oct 2015 #5

I would love to know the real reason why crime and murder have fallen so far, so fast NickB79 Oct 2015 #6

Roe v. Wade Kang Colby Oct 2015 #14

I've heard of that theory before. Sounds good, but hard to really prove one way or another NickB79 Oct 2015 #29

I agree. Kang Colby Oct 2015 #37

Nah, just wait 15-30 years, and we'll see pretty easily if it was Roe vs Wade KitSileya Oct 2015 #50

The abatement of lead in our environment? gratuitous Oct 2015 #7

good point! uawchild Oct 2015 #16

Did removing lead from petrol spark a decline in crime? IDemo Oct 2015 #24

The fact remains that the number of guns has gone up, and gun crime has fallen LittleBlue Oct 2015 #9

While "guns" have gone up, gun ownership has gone down. n/t W_HAMILTON Oct 2015 #15

See Illinois. N/T beevul Oct 2015 #55

sharply uponit7771 Oct 2015 #58

Yeah, just put one of those "This property is protected TexasBushwhacker Oct 2015 #10

Several years ago I worked with a gunsmith IDemo Oct 2015 #23

And yet even with all those burglaries, gun crimes keep going down NickB79 Oct 2015 #32

Massive incarceration rates. yallerdawg Oct 2015 #11

thetrace.org Kang Colby Oct 2015 #12

The removal of lead from gas and paint N/T bob4460 Oct 2015 #19

Aging population, more police, end of crack epidemic were 3 other reasons. Travis_0004 Oct 2015 #28

DNA testing, without a doubt. a small # of people commit a large # of violent TheFrenchRazor Oct 2015 #41

say what you like about the war on drugs, Sen. Walter Sobchak Oct 2015 #42

And millions of others that don't belong in prison. GGJohn Oct 2015 #43

That may be, Sen. Walter Sobchak Oct 2015 #45

Oh, don't get me wrong, GGJohn Oct 2015 #49

Abortion. nt Lilyhoney Oct 2015 #51

Lead vs. bullets HoustonDave Oct 2015 #59

Reminds me of that time when Ted NUGENT & wife "Shemane" were on t.v. UTUSN Oct 2015 #61

The GOP needs to go to gun rehab. Initech Oct 2015 #71

Liberal social policies are what chopped the crime rate in half. krispos42 Oct 2015 #72