General Discussion

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)

21. I don't believe that for a moment.

Mon Oct 12, 2015, 07:09 PM

Oct 2015

The "fewer gun owners" assertion is based on studies employing unverified phone surveys ("unverified" meaning no validation of the accuracy of responses). When you employ that methodology in a survey about a controversial topic, you might as well use the results as birdcage liner. When quizzed on a controversial topic with personal implications for the subject, people lie. It's the same problem as the one with Gary Kleck's infamous "2.5 million defensive gun usages" survey, only in the opposite direction: false negatives instead of false positives.

While it's only anecdotal evidence, I have to reflect on the fact that of the couple dozen or so gun owners I've broached this topic with, not one has stated they'd tell a researcher they owned guns. Not one. And fwiw, at least half of them are fellow liberals..

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What Caused the Two-Decade Dip in Crime Rates? Not �Good Guys with Guns.� [View all] onehandle Oct 2015 OP

I suspect that pretty much everybody knew that anyway. There's a carload of varibles regarding crime BlueJazz Oct 2015 #1

There is evidence a drop in violence crime Jesus Malverde Oct 2015 #38

abortion rights JI7 Oct 2015 #2

Freakonomics pointed this out a few years ago Ex Lurker Oct 2015 #13

+1 uponit7771 Oct 2015 #56

I think you are right. CTyankee Oct 2015 #25

Yes, fewer kids growing up knowing they were unwanted Warpy Oct 2015 #27

When you say "fewer kids growing up knowing they were unwanted" TeddyR Oct 2015 #30

No, it's yours. Nice straw man. Warpy Oct 2015 #34

Nope Spider Jerusalem Oct 2015 #52

hmmmm uponit7771 Oct 2015 #57

Rule of thumb: when Conservatives think they... WhaTHellsgoingonhere Oct 2015 #63

Other rule of thumb... Wounded Bear Oct 2015 #75

Nothing new, here. One thing the drop in crime DOES suggest: Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #3

Think Progress: Largest Gun Study Ever: More Guns, More Murder onehandle Oct 2015 #8

Explain: Murders down 20 yrs, civilian guns up 20 yrs. nt Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #17

the ammosexuals are hoarding larger and larger arsenals. geek tragedy Oct 2015 #18

I don't believe that for a moment. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #21

This may come as a shock to you but survey researchers track resistance rates Gormy Cuss Oct 2015 #26

I also have trouble believing there is 7000 DGU a day. Bullshit. Nt Logical Oct 2015 #47

As well you should. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #62

Trust me, that's not a shock. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #60

So you're aware of randomized response, for example Gormy Cuss Oct 2015 #66

Yep. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #69

Because gun nuts are paranoid of the Feds taking their guns! Nt Logical Oct 2015 #44

But more guns, even in fewer households, is supposed to lead to more stolen guns NickB79 Oct 2015 #31

And you can prove this how? GGJohn Oct 2015 #33

The same opinion polls show increased opposition geek tragedy Oct 2015 #35

Proving increased opposition to gun control is easier than proving decreased firearm ownership, GGJohn Oct 2015 #36

That doesn't make sense. geek tragedy Oct 2015 #39

As I said, GGJohn Oct 2015 #40

Among my friends, family and colleagues discussions of what to do... Sen. Walter Sobchak Oct 2015 #46

Ok, but that's just a few people, GGJohn Oct 2015 #48

I doubt very many non-gun owning X'ers and Millenials find grandpa's gun... Sen. Walter Sobchak Oct 2015 #53

If one ignores Illinois this might appear to be the case. beevul Oct 2015 #54

Again: "More guns = more crimes." Yours is a different topic. Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #68

Percentage of population that owns guns has declined though in the past 30+ years Kaleva Oct 2015 #20

Please see my response to geek tragedy, above... Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #22

One would have to take your ancedotal evidence with a far larger truck of salt. Kaleva Oct 2015 #64

That's not the source of my opinion on this point, though. Lizzie Poppet Oct 2015 #65

Survey doesn't say that the number of gun owners is shrinking. Kaleva Oct 2015 #70

Problems: The anti-gun meme is "more guns = more crimes." Correct? Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #67

By looking at the Gallup poll, the Economist poll, and FOID data Kang Colby Oct 2015 #73

The spikes in gun-related crime began in the late 60s before declining significantly Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #74

People carry for SD, not for effecting social policy. nt Eleanors38 Oct 2015 #4

As long as more guns =/= more gun crime than what's the big deal? nt hack89 Oct 2015 #5

I would love to know the real reason why crime and murder have fallen so far, so fast NickB79 Oct 2015 #6

Roe v. Wade Kang Colby Oct 2015 #14

I've heard of that theory before. Sounds good, but hard to really prove one way or another NickB79 Oct 2015 #29

I agree. Kang Colby Oct 2015 #37

Nah, just wait 15-30 years, and we'll see pretty easily if it was Roe vs Wade KitSileya Oct 2015 #50

The abatement of lead in our environment? gratuitous Oct 2015 #7

good point! uawchild Oct 2015 #16

Did removing lead from petrol spark a decline in crime? IDemo Oct 2015 #24

The fact remains that the number of guns has gone up, and gun crime has fallen LittleBlue Oct 2015 #9

While "guns" have gone up, gun ownership has gone down. n/t W_HAMILTON Oct 2015 #15

See Illinois. N/T beevul Oct 2015 #55

sharply uponit7771 Oct 2015 #58

Yeah, just put one of those "This property is protected TexasBushwhacker Oct 2015 #10

Several years ago I worked with a gunsmith IDemo Oct 2015 #23

And yet even with all those burglaries, gun crimes keep going down NickB79 Oct 2015 #32

Massive incarceration rates. yallerdawg Oct 2015 #11

thetrace.org Kang Colby Oct 2015 #12

The removal of lead from gas and paint N/T bob4460 Oct 2015 #19

Aging population, more police, end of crack epidemic were 3 other reasons. Travis_0004 Oct 2015 #28

DNA testing, without a doubt. a small # of people commit a large # of violent TheFrenchRazor Oct 2015 #41

say what you like about the war on drugs, Sen. Walter Sobchak Oct 2015 #42

And millions of others that don't belong in prison. GGJohn Oct 2015 #43

That may be, Sen. Walter Sobchak Oct 2015 #45

Oh, don't get me wrong, GGJohn Oct 2015 #49

Abortion. nt Lilyhoney Oct 2015 #51

Lead vs. bullets HoustonDave Oct 2015 #59

Reminds me of that time when Ted NUGENT & wife "Shemane" were on t.v. UTUSN Oct 2015 #61

The GOP needs to go to gun rehab. Initech Oct 2015 #71

Liberal social policies are what chopped the crime rate in half. krispos42 Oct 2015 #72