538: "Maybe Republicans Really Are In Disarray"

[Attorney in Texas]

9. The "old rules" about the strength or weakness of an incumbent party no longer apply because the

Republican party has gerrymandered the nation to reflect a false parity between the parties.

In years past, there was some balance between the two major parties of the day because a party too far outside of the public mainstream would either evolve to better reflect the public's views or die for lack of support.

The modern Republican party has cheated this natural evolutionary process by gerrymandering congressional districts so extremely and so anti-democratically that they have been able to depart from the mainstream without being checked back toward more widely accepted views because they rigged the congressional election process.

As a result of the Republicans maintaining a majority of congressional seats with less than a majority of votes due to gerrymandering, they have evolved into a party with governmental power beyond what its minority level of actual support should warrant. This power grab has the negative consequence, however, that the Republican party is no longer geared toward winning a majority of votes -- just a majority of congressional seats.

The electoral college is not a direct vote for president, but it is not generally susceptible to gerrymandering, and so the Republican party faces a different handicap in presidential races than the obstacles any other political party has historically faced.