Virtual America

[Shandris]

2. Because the biggest driver of events is the Black Swan.

No model can truly replicate a Black Swan (at least that I've ever heard of; how do you predict the unpredictable?) so it's effects would be...at best only 'under ideal circumstances'. Since 'ideal circumstances' in academic-speak is people's lives in real-world speak, that's too fine a line to cut.

IOW, it would work decently well for small policy changes, but the farther you change the model the less predictable it becomes (because you increase the number of change interactions, not to mention the general effect of entropy on any system). You might see if a .3% tax is beneficial, but not if changing to a Police State with Hab Housing under Democratic Rule a la Civilization 2 would be worth a look.