Charles Pierce: There Is Only One Way to Defeat ISIS

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77. Not yet, the US was expected to be a net exporter but never happened

Last edited Sun Nov 15, 2015, 01:22 AM - Edit history (1)

Check the Energy Information Agency for details.

In 2007 US NET imports peaked at about 13 million barrel a day. In 2015 those are done to less than 4 million barrels a day. This the result of BOTH Gulf of Mexico production AND fracking. Fracked oil was expected to peak in 2017 and then go into a rapid decline. That was based on the price of oil staying over $50 a barrel. The price is almost down to $20 a barrel and fracking wells are NOT being drilled.

If the rate of new fracking wells had been maintained the US would have become a net exporter in 2016. That dependent on the price staying up and it did not. Thus the US never did become a net oil exporter and does not appear that will be the case even if the price of oil goes back up. The reason for this is oil from fracking has a short life of production, fracking wells last less then five years in production. There was a small window where the US could have exported oil but that window is rapidly closing.

Now National Gas production from fracking is thought to increase even after 2017 and as such has been viewed as a possible export. Oil from Canada was also seen as a possible export. Oil on the other hand was viewed as a net export maybe for 18 months starting in late 2016. Some experts said the window was less then a year but no one with a background in oil production expected it to last into 2018.

The desire to return to the days prior to 1969 was great (1969 was the last year the US was a net Oil exporter, something the US had been from 1859 till 1969). It was more wishful thinking, given the huge drop in net imports after 2007, then reality. Just a comment that the US remains a net oil importer to this day.