The Ben Ali, Gaddafi and Mubarak gambits were tried in 2011 and all the long-standing (even hereditary) dictators were deposed and/or dead by the end of 2011. Mr. Assad is neither. Dictators should take note of what works and what does not work.
And he seems to be adding a Step 7 to his previous 5 Step Plan. (Step 6 was added when when the US and others became directly involved in attacking one of his enemies (ISIS) then Russia became directly militarily involved in protecting his regime.) Step 7 is: If the international community (having come to your rescue) decides that elections might be a way to resolve the civil war, make sure your name is on the ballot. You can handle 'elections' just fine but not if the international community decides that your history of repression should keep you off the ballot.
1: When massive peaceful protests occur, repress them as them as violently as you can get away with - snipers, arrests, torture, etc.
2. This may work to quell the protests. If so, reward your military and security services and go back to being a dictator.
3. If #1 doesn't work right away and massive peaceful protests continue, keep up the repression. (You have to come up with a strategy to keep the international community at bay. A friend on the Security Council is useful for this.) Start talking about the presence of "criminal gangs" or "terrorists" among the protesters. There may not be any yet, but it's good to get the talking point out there for future use.
4. If your military and security forces continue to prove to be ineffective in suppressing dissent, don't worry. Keep up the armed repression. Eventually frustration will build up among factions of the protesters and some will become willing to resort to violence given the apparent futility of peaceful protest. Or outside groups will begin to take advantage of these frustrations.
5. At this point you can unleash your military and security forces to the full extent and hope you don't lose the civil war you have created.
6. If your military seems to be losing the civil war you have created, appeal to the international community to help you fight the terrorists - who weren't there in step #1 but are now. Use a hybrid of Louis XV's "Apres moi, le deluge" and W's "Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists."
7. If the international community decides that bringing an end to the slaughter and civil war involves your departure, protest that your rights are being violated. Some people may take you seriously.
I think this is a strategy that is workable in many repressive countries when populations get fed up with living with no rights.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=378947
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