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Bucky

(55,334 posts)
12. I think reality makes the case.
Tue Dec 27, 2011, 12:48 PM
Dec 2011

I'm talking Realpolitik here, of course. But in the 70 years prior to 1945, no one dominated the oceans like America does today. Thus Japan, the US, Britain, France, and Holland all competed for dominance of the far eastern seas. Britain dominated the Indian Ocean, but had a few lesser rivals over the Atlantic, and the US controlled everything east of Hawaii.

The OP is arguing for a wider US withdrawal from our present domination of all three oceans. But what would happen in case of a power vacuum like that? I suspect in the far Pacific, you'd quickly see another competition between China and Japan, with South Korea freaking out and Indonesia slowly becoming a regional player. Taiwan would be peacefully reabsorbed and the people there would pray they get the Hong Kong treatment. Probably the Indonesians would seek help from Russia a/o India, neither of which would want either Asian giant winning this competition.

Competition for alpha male status among nations can turn ugly. But moreover, neither giant has the tradition that the United States has for supporting Freedom of the Seas. This term sounds like FDR to us, but it actually originates in Wilson's 14 Points, which in turn builds on the old Open Door Policy of the 19th century. Americans have traditionally pushed for open trade on the seas. Last time Japan was a player, they had a less liberal philosophy. China, psychologically still recovering from European & Japanese domination, would also be less liberal about sharing the seas.

If these two competed, because America withdrew, the chances of wars among their proxies and allies would increase exponentially. Under America's 70 year umbrella, there's been peace--the only exceptions have been peripheral and contained exceptions. Outside that umbrella, where there isn't dominance by major powers, the usual human atrocities prevail--Cambodia, East Timor, the periodic border skirmishes between China and Vietnam. But where the umbrella has extended, the major powers do not fight wars any longer. Compare the numbers of major wars between the 1870s and 1940s with the major wars since 1945. For that matter, compare the threats of war, the instances of successful saber-rattling between powers in those two time periods. By any measure, the Industrial Age was far more violent and far more dangerous than the Atomic Age and Post Cold War period.

For the Pacific Rim, at least, American naval dominance has been a boon. This is not to dismiss the problems that come with this role as global cop. American sailors have, on occasion, done terrible things to individual Okinawans. But in the big picture, in the strategic interests of the nation-states of the region, that doesn't matter too much. If you have a competition among nation-states for dominance of the region, individual human rights will come to matter even less.





Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

+1 n/t doc03 Dec 2011 #1
I'm with him too. MoonRiver Dec 2011 #2
This message was self-deleted by its author Obamanaut Dec 2011 #3
I think we should close almost all US military bases MineralMan Dec 2011 #4
Not a good development. America's navy really needs operating bases in eastern Asia Bucky Dec 2011 #5
With our war record in the Middle East and elsewhere? RC Dec 2011 #6
The United States and peacful inetent in the same sentence. sarcasmo Dec 2011 #7
Glad to give you a giggle Bucky Dec 2011 #16
Why should the US people pay to patrol the Pacific Ocean? You haven't made your case. nt Romulox Dec 2011 #8
How else can we enjoy our cheap goods? Robb Dec 2011 #10
"Externalities" (e.g. a massive military shield) give a bogus sense of "cheap". It's not "cheap" Romulox Dec 2011 #11
If the US withdrew from the Pacific, those goods wouldn't be so cheap Bucky Dec 2011 #13
I think reality makes the case. Bucky Dec 2011 #12
I agree with you d_r Dec 2011 #14
I notice you didn't mention the interests of the AMERICAN PEOPLE once in your lengthy response! nt Romulox Dec 2011 #15
Sorry, somehow I deleted that paragraph Bucky Dec 2011 #17
Your answer is contradictory. How can a "huge black hole of lost commercial productivity" be a boon? Romulox Dec 2011 #19
Don't make me laugh. The Japanese people will never agree to allow the US to leave Japan. Romulox Dec 2011 #9
For anyone wanting to know why read "Blowback" by Chalmers Johnson. I totally agree. jwirr Dec 2011 #18
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