Trumps support in IA is not very deep and he could finish 2nd or even 3rd [View all]
The numbers in the Seltzer poll tell some stories.
If you combine first and second choice, Cruz is first, and Trump is tied with Rubio for third
First choice - Second Choice
Trump 28+7=35
Cruz 23+17=40
Rubio 15+20=35
Now I'm sure that some of these second and thirds come from Trump and Cruz, so the numbers aren't completely clear.
But caucusers are more comfortable with Cruz as president and would pick Cruz over Trump in a two way race.
More or less comfortable as president
Cruz 49-28
Trump 37-45
Two person race between Trump and Cruz
35 Trump
53 Cruz
From what I've read, Cruz has a strong ground game. So Cruz's people are better suited to get people out and organize them properly. I've also heard that the Cruz people think they have more built in support. So if they show up, it could be their night in the end.
Also, I think the Carson people are more likely to move to Cruz than Trump. They add up to 10% so they probably won't be viable in most cases.
My point is, don't be surprised if Cruz pulls it out, and possibly runs away with it in the end.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r1OvZ1NeDjnY
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