NASA admits there's 'a chance' that asteroid 2013 TX68 COULD smash into Earth

[muriel_volestrangler]

31. I've just realised, the Mirror has got this wrong - NASA is now saying *no* chance of a hit

Here's the NASA page: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/small-asteroid-to-pass-close-to-earth-march-5

It's dated, at the top, Feb. 2, 2016. And it has, in normal font, this paragraph:

"During the upcoming March 5 flyby, asteroid 2013 TX68 could fly past Earth as far out as 9 million miles (14 million kilometers) or as close as 11,000 miles (17,000 kilometers). The variation in possible closest approach distances is due to the wide range of possible trajectories for this object, since it was tracked for only a short time after discovery.

Scientists at NASA's Center for NEO Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, have determined there is no possibility that this object could impact Earth during the flyby next month. But they have identified an extremely remote chance that this small asteroid could impact on Sep. 28, 2017, with odds of no more than 1-in-250-million. Flybys in 2046 and 2097 have an even lower probability of impact."

But, above that, in bold type, it has:

UPDATED ON FEB. 25 AT 2:40 P.M. PT:

Additional observations of asteroid 2013 TX68 have been obtained, refining its orbital path and moving the date of the asteroid’s Earth flyby from March 5 to March 8.

The observations, from archived images provided by the NASA-funded Pan-STARRS asteroid survey, enabled scientists at NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, to refine their earlier flyby and distance predictions, reconfirming that the asteroid poses no threat to Earth.

"We already knew this asteroid, 2013 TX68, would safely fly past Earth in early March, but this additional data allow us to get a better handle on its orbital path," said Paul Chodas, manager of CNEOS. "The data indicate that this small asteroid will probably pass much farther away from Earth than previously thought."

Marco Micheli of the European Space Agency's NEO Coordination Centre (NEOCC/SpaceDys) in Frascati, Italy, is the astronomer who identified the object in the archived images, measured its position, and provided these observations to the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

CNEOS's new prediction for 2013 TX68 is that it will fly by roughly 3 million miles (5 million kilometers) from our planet. There is still a chance that it could pass closer, but certainly no closer than 15,000 miles (24,000 kilometers) above Earth's surface. The new observations also better constrain the path of 2013 TX68 in future years; CNEOS has determined that 2013 TX68 cannot impact Earth over the next century.

"There is no concern whatsoever regarding this asteroid – unless you were interested in seeing it with a telescope," said Chodas. "Prospects for observing this asteroid, which were not very good to begin with, are now even worse because the asteroid is likely to be farther away, and therefore dimmer than previously believed."

So the change of mind that NASA had was to go from a 1 in 250-million chance to no chance.