Judge Jane Kelly?

[Chan790]

6. Unclear who he will face at this point...

there are three declared candidates (Tom Fiegen, Rob Hogg, Bob Krause) but apparently the state party isn't too enamored of any of them (I know nothing about them; I had to Google/Wikipedia for this information) because they are actively trying to recruit candidates still...the list of people who are exploring candidacy or have been discussed is long but includes former NFL QB Kyle Orton, both Vilsacks, and former Governor Chet Culver.

All three of the declared candidates lose to Grassley by ~22% in head-to-head polling, but Grassely barely breaks 50% against any of them...huge undecideds in that race. That polling is about 6 months old. More recently, in approval polling since this SCOTUS kerfuffle occurred, it's there we've seen Grassley's support starting to erode in just the past month...only a few % (3 in one, 2 in another) but considering that he was barely breaking 50% in GE polling against weak candidates, that could spell trouble for him.

Conversely, he could look statesmanly if he bucks his party...hence Obama's Judge Kelly gambit: get a SCOTUS justice confirmed in exchange for making Grassley's race easier for him.