Breaking down the GOP map [View all]

[RandySF]

Florida primary: 99 delegates

Trump’s strong performance in Alabama and Georgia suggests rural North Florida could be a problem area for Rubio. To pull off the comeback victory, the senator needs to run up the score in his home county of Miami-Dade, the most populous in the state, where 90,000 of the roughly 1 million early and absentee ballots in Florida had been cast through Saturday. Rubio will also need a solid performance in the state’s I-4 corridor, which stretches from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona Beach.

Illinois primary: 69 delegates

Committeemen in Cook County, Illinois’ most populous, voted to recommend Kasich, which the local party chair predicts will help the Ohio governor finish at least second in the field. Kasich has also won the support of some top local Republican lawmakers, whose names will appear on the ballot as delegates, and he has the support of the influential former Illinois GOP Chairman Pat Brady.

Trump, however, tops statewide polling. It’s unclear how Friday’s canceled Chicago rally might affect the GOP front-runner with his supporters, or whether the anti-Trump ads that have blanketed the airwaves for the past two weeks have driven up his negatives.

Missouri primary: 52 delegates

If Cruz picks up a win Tuesday, this would be the place — his top strategist, Jeff Roe, made his name running Missouri campaigns, and the state has a high percentage of evangelicals. The Texas senator made four stops across the state Saturday, including one in suburban St. Louis, where he was joined by Carly Fiorina, and he has the endorsement of Rep. Ann Wagner.

But working in Trump’s favor is Missouri’s open primary system: Some of his top performances have come in states, like this one, where Democrats and independents can vote in the GOP primary.

North Carolina primary: 72 delegates

“Early voting and people participating is strong, despite that North Carolina has not had a March primary before,” said Dallas Woodhouse, executive director of North Carolina’s Republican Party. “We have had double the amount of absentees from 2012. Our early voting numbers are really strong. More unaffiliated [voters] are picking our ticket than the Democratic side.”

Polls here suggest a two-man race: Trump continues to lead most statewide surveys, including in a High Point University poll that listed him at 48 percent on Friday, followed by Cruz at 28 percent. Kasich and Rubio are far behind.

Ohio primary: 66 delegates

Trump overperformed in Kentucky’s eastern coal region, and Clegg sees a similar dynamic in Appalachian southeast Ohio. If voters turn out in droves there, it portends a good night for Trump. Cleveland’s Cuyahoga and Toledo’s Lucas counties will be a test of whether Trump can repeat his strength among more urbanized blue-collar voters. Suburban Cincinnati counties like Butler, Warren and Claremont are places to watch for Kasich.


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/breaking-down-the-gop-tuesday-map-220669#ixzz42pO3M5fN