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Chan790

(20,176 posts)
12. Yes.
Wed Jun 6, 2012, 02:05 AM
Jun 2012

The President's re-election is not in jeopardy, it would not have been in jeopardy if he'd stumped for WI. It wasn't going to make anything harder...the most it could have done was move one "Lean Dem" state to toss-up...and he'd likely still win it even then.

Let's see if I can make this clearer. Based on polling:

Safe Dem: WA, OR, CA, NM, MN, IL, MI, MD, DE, DC, PA, NJ, NY, CT, MA, NH, VT, ME, HI
Lean Dem: NV, WI
Obama: 257 EC

Safe GOP: AK, ID, UT, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, OK, TX, KS, AR, MI, AL, LA, GA, SC, IN, TN, KY, WV
Lean GOP: AZ
Romney: 181EC

Tossups: CO, IA, MO, OH, VA, NC, FL

To win the election, Romney has to win all of them except he can lose either CO or IA, but not both. Obama has to win either 2 of CO, IA, MO or 1 of OH, VA, NC, FL. He's leading in CO, IA, OH, VA, NC, FL. He's down narrowly in in MO. The odds are greater of Obama breaking 300EC than they are of him losing.

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