General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Can someone answer my question about the minimum-wage hike? [View all]eniwetok
(1,629 posts)The ONLY reason I bring up teens is not because I don't know there are many adults that get the MW... but because since we're talking about a NATIONAL MW... it will APPLY TO THOSE UNSKILLED TEENS. We're talking after all about the MINIMUM wage in the nation... and it has to make sense even in depressed rural areas. The idea that one can take what was to be a living wage from a high flying urban area and apply it everywhere is simply absurd. So, no... it's not a tactic... it's a fucking reality check.
As for other nations... again IT'S A REALITY CHECK. I don't see you complaining if some here toss out deceptive numbers about Australia or some McDs in Denmark. The use of OECD PPP numbers simply shows what other advanced industrial economies are paying as a minimum. Sorry if NONE Of them are at $15.. but my suggestion to go back to $11 is just 20c lower than the highest on that list. That alone would be about a $7300 raise over the current $7.25. I know... just chicken feed in the minds of those who demand $15 and think there will be no problems because in their magical thinking... local stores will just make it back in increased demand. That's just an empty claim. Of course they could just cut hours and lay workers off. If you think this is just right wing clap trap it's because you've never run a business.
And yes, the economy could use more demand... BUT WE'RE NOT THAT PRE-FREE TRADE ECONOMY. Demand for most consumer products won't be met with more being hired in US factories... but foreign ones. We'll just hire more people for retail. So the recycling effect is grotesquely exaggerated by the $15 crowd. When the MW was last $11 we had a protectionist economy and strong unions.
As for oil, OK... so you admit that when something knocks an economy out of some state of equilibrium... (and that's not a value statement over what we have today is desirable... clearly the MW must go up...) then it can have negative effects on the economy. True some of those hikes were big but what % of business costs did they represent compared to labor costs? You seem to believe that if raise the MW by gradual increments of 20% that's no big deal. But with the exception of 49-56 it's never doubled in such a short time. Again, then we had a protectionist economy and strong unions. Today service businesses may not be able to outsource... but what little left of manufacturing can. Such as steep hike is going to hit those 25 states that are still $8 or below.
The bottom line is at least I know from BEA and BLS numbers that we could handle $11... when conditions were favorable. There's simply NO data that show we can move to $15 without major problems. Hell, the CBO predicted going to $10 would cost 1 million jobs.
We really need to restructure the economy back along sane lines... ending free trade with exploitative nations and rebuilding the union movement so there are other forces pulling wages up and not just government decrees.