Analysis: Why did Barrett lose and Walker win?

[kelly1mm]

35. I think that some in WI did not like the recall as a tactic, and others did not like the protests

in Madison last year. I believe that Wi is MASSIVELY polarized now and the rest of the country is likely to follow. I think the middle is shrinking (even 'independents' have visceral reactions to candidates) and that both parties will move to scorched earth policies as working across party lines will be increasingly difficult. As one who has served in local government, I find this distressing. At the local level I think party affiliation is less important (you still need to get the garbage picked up if you are a D or an R) but even there I see partisan bickering. Sad really.

One other factor, not a minor one and one that will be a factor in November, is public employee pensions. Not just WI, but CA, NY, MA also are working on changing pensions. I think trying to protect defined benefit pensions for public employees (at least new hires) may be a loosing issue and drag down otherwise winning tickets across the country. While I understand the arguments why defined benefit pensions are preferred, they are gone for the VAST majority in this country and are not coming back. Call it envy all you want, but that will increasingly be a major issue.