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In reply to the discussion: Analysis: Why did Barrett lose and Walker win? [View all]Chan790
(20,176 posts)I know that's heresy but I watched a lot of coverage yesterday and that was the one recurring thing that kept coming up in the hours before the polls closed: the number of people who said they'd decided months ago how to vote and that they hadn't been swayed or even paid attention to the ad-avalanche because they'd already decided.
88% of polled-voters said they'd decided how to vote prior to May, 1% had decided in the last day and only 12% had decided since May 1 when the heavy spending roll-out began. This coincides with what we know to be universally-true based on studies of other subjects about message-fatigue. The more you bombard someone with messaging or ads on a subject, the less effective the power of every ad they've seen past, present or future becomes. Run too many pro-Walker ads and people will vote against him because he's the disruptive asshat that's interfering with their ability to watch the local news and prime-time TV. (How many people remember "Head On. Apply directly to the forehead. Head On. Apply directly to the forehead. Head On. Apply directly to the forehead."? How many people did that commercial convince to buy Head On? Not as many as people who swore to never buy Head On because the commercial annoyed the shit out of them.)
Yes, Walker won...but that doesn't mean the money wasn't foolishly spent or that it did make a difference. It may have but there is no basis to assume so outside of the anecdotal.
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