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In reply to the discussion: Obama: Bush Tax Cuts For Wealthy Will Not Be Extended, Period [View all]JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)As a candidate, Obama made 2 promises.
1) Not to raise taxes of those making under 250k. 98% of all Americans.
2) End the Bush tax cuts for those making over 250k. 2% of all Americans.
Now, without a bill on his desk that separates those 2 items, there was no way for him to keep both promises. The mistake Obama made as a candidate was in trusting the Dem Congress to PASS legislation that maintained the tax cuts for those under 250k, but not for those above.
In the fall of 2010, the Dems could have brought such legislation. They did not. They could have even created a version which extended the cuts for those making under 1 million dollars, but they did not. This would have been a winning issue for them ... but they were cowards and punted the issue for Obama to deal with in the lame duck session. The Dems lost the house in part because THEY punted ... think for a minute ... Obama did not extend the cuts until the lame duck session which was AFTER the 2010 election. Obama extending the tax cuts in December can't be the cause of the Dems losing in November.
And so back to Dec 2010, if Obama lets them all expire, he breaks a promise to the 98% making less than 250k. And something like 70% of them did not want their taxes to go up. If he did let them expire for those under 250k, the media would have spent the last 2 years calling it his "read my lips" moment.
They'd stop trying to say he is Carter, and start saying that he's actually Bush #1. He promised not to raise taxes on the middle class, then he did. Boom, he's done. He definitely loses in 2012, and the new GOP President goes on to reinstate the tax breaks permanently.
Given what we know about today's congress, it is unlikely that they will be able to reach a deal on those tax cuts before the election. In other words, they will again PUNT this issue into the lame duck session. But this time, Obama does not have to worry about re-election. Win or lose, he can let them all expire because the media can't calling it his "read my lips" moment has zero impact.
My suspicion is that the GOP understands this. And during the lame duck we'll see a new deal, keep all tax cuts for those making under 1 million a year, end them for those above that level. At the 1 million dollar level, the GOP can't claim its protecting "small business", but it can claim a partial victory.