A quick estimate, how likely it is for Trump to win the national election: [View all]

[DetlefK]

Starting-point: Trump needs 51 out of 100.

70% of women (~55% of the electorate) have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
That's 38.5% of all votes, but let's round it down to 30%.
-> That's about 30% of the total vote he will never-ever get. 70% remains.

-> Trump needs 51 out of 70.

90% of Latinos (~15% of electorate) have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
That's 13.5%, but let's round it down to 8% and half of them are already accounted for as women.
-> That's about 4% of the total vote he will never-ever get. 66% remains.

-> Trump needs 51 out of 66.

70% of African-Americans (~10% of Electorate) have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
That's 7%, but let's round it down to 4% and half of them are already accounted for as women.
-> That's about 2% of the total vote he will never-ever get. 64% remains.

-> Trump needs 51 out of 64.

About 64% of the electorate would definitely or maybe vote for him. And out of those, he would need 51% of the total electorate.

Even under a most generous estimate, he would need to win 80% among the subset of voters who view him favorable or are undecided.



Now let's go with an estimate that is more pessimistic for Trump but still realistic:
Women: 35% of the popular vote he doesn't get.
Latinos: 5% of the popular vote he doesn't get.
African-Americans: 3% of the popular vote he doesn't get.

The subset of voters who view him favorable or are undecided would be 57% of the popular vote. Out of those he would need 51%.

Under this estimate, he would need to win 89% among the voters who view him favorable or are undecided.