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phleshdef

(11,936 posts)

2. You need to look at that from the point of view of swing states.

Reply to DetlefK (Original post)

Wed May 4, 2016, 07:21 AM

May 2016

We already know where Trump is gonna definitely win and our nominee is going to definitely win.

But swing states like Colorado, Nevada and Florida with big Hispanic voting blocks, he is screwed. I don't see him taking Ohio or PA either. After Obama's elections, we have a pretty awesome firewall.

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A quick estimate, how likely it is for Trump to win the national election: [View all] DetlefK May 2016 OP

Depending on who our nominee is Kittycat May 2016 #1

You need to look at that from the point of view of swing states. phleshdef May 2016 #2

You have to drill down to the state level Ex Lurker May 2016 #3

Just FYI: I do have a life besides DU. DetlefK May 2016 #7

It's going to boil down to who the voters hate more Lurks Often May 2016 #4

I like your analysis...however titaniumsalute May 2016 #5

The white - yearning for apartheid South Africa - culture will vote for Trump Hoyt May 2016 #6

An infinitismally small number that approaches zero WhaTHellsgoingonhere May 2016 #8

All that assumes the game board won't get knocked over. Jerry442 May 2016 #9

The voting machines are rigged fasttense May 2016 #10

In my mind's eye there's this big Looney-Tunes "Cheat" switch somewhere... NT Jerry442 May 2016 #11

As likely as Nicole Kidman sleeping with me tonight fred v May 2016 #12

Trump will choose 2-4 SCOTUS Justices if Democrats dont Get Out the Vote Bernardo de La Paz May 2016 #13

Trump has alienated a number of key demographic groups Gothmog May 2016 #14