If Trump reaches the GE he will be unstoppable

[Jim Lane]

118. Reread my post. My "wild imagining" expressly addressed Florida.

I agree with you that, among Hispanics, Trump will probably do even worse than Romney did. That's the main reason I said that Trump would have better chances of flipping Rust Belt states even though Florida was a much closer Obama win in 2012.

If Trump flips the four Rust Belt states I named and keeps all of Romney's states, he wins, even without Florida (which was not a Romney state).

I don't expect an indictment. My how-Trump-might-win scenario depended on other factors. In the unlikely event that there is an indictment, however, it will be devastating, regardless of the substance. You focus on what would be "easily grasped by idiots" and I agree that's crucial. (Neither candidate can afford to write off the idiot vote.) But millions of voters won't parse the terms of an indictment, the way you suggest. The accusation that a candidate committed a felony will be all they focus on.

Trump is a very unconventional candidate. It's possible that this year, the cliffhanger state that decides the election will not be Florida. Here's another scenario, incorporating the hypothesis of Trump gains in the Rust Belt: Florida, instead of being close, is in the bag for the Democrats (thanks, Hispanics!). Ohio, instead of being close, is in the bag for the Republicans. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, despite six straight elections going blue, go red. Trump backers rejoice as those states are called on election night. BUT Arizona, despite having gone red in 15 of the last 16 elections and not normally being considered a swing state, has seen a surge of Hispanic voter registration, motivated by hostility to Trump. The networks find it "too close to call" until several hours after the polls close, when it's finally seen to flip to blue. The Democratic nominee is the President-Elect.

To be clear, my prediction is that Trump will not flip all those Rust Belt states, but it's not a possibility I'd write off with complete confidence.