More and more likely: A third-party "real Republican" candidate for president.

[thesquanderer]

57. It's not specifically about the swing states, it's also about the blue-ish ones.

Last edited Tue May 10, 2016, 11:34 AM - Edit history (1)

One perspective is that Hillary's unfavorables (outside the base) are so high, that if she were running against a more popular Republican, she could actually lose some states that would otherwise lean more strongly to the Dem candidate. So it's not necessarily so much about the third candidate getting the swing states that Trump has a decent shot at, it could be more about taking away some of the blue-ish states where Trump has very little support, but where Hillary could be more vulnerable to a stronger opponent. Where--to extrapolate from your Ohio example--it may indeed be easier to hold Trump to small numbers.

With that in mind, look at the chart at http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

Let's assume Hillary is going to get the states that are "Solid D" no matter what, that gives her only 190 truly solid EV, everything else is at least slightly in play.

So for example, if the third candidate takes (with as little as 34%) just Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, and some fifth state (i.e. any one out of Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, a Maine split, or any one of the swing states), Hillary can't get to 270 based on that chart (giving the rest of the blue or leaning blue states to Hillary, giving Trump the red and leaning red states, and giving the rest of the swing states to either one of them), and of course neither can Trump. So that tosses the election into the House.

As for your other point about the swing states, even using your premise that one-on-one against Kasich Hillary gets 45% in Ohio, I don't think that necessarily equates to her having a floor of 45 if she is up against two candidates instead of one. Basically, in a two-person race, almost every state has a floor of 45 for each of the two candidates, rarely do you see huge blowouts, but a third candidate can change the calculus.

I'm not saying it's easy, or even likely... just that it's not impossible.