Scientific American: Bash Homeopathy and Bigfoot Less, Mammograms and War More

[zipplewrath]

52. I think many draw the wrong conclusions

The result of the analysis of early screenings is that they are currently doing more harm than good. However, the problem with that is what you allude. Those harmed by having them are probably larger in number, but the consequences of that "harm" is probably smaller than the "harm" to the "few" of not having them.

The real lesson is that we are getting way too many "false positives". i.e. we are detecting things that are not deadly, or even harmful. The result is people being treated with methods that are far from "safe" and leave them damaged. The "cure" is more harmful than the disease. So we need to reduce the number of false positives, not reduce the number of screenings. We need to know way more accurately who the "truly afflicted" are and what they have.

In the mean time we are stuck with a lot of early screenings and people having to take their chances. In your case, it probably worked out for the best. Your bets paid off. In my family we're probably running 50/50, but in my case that still remains to be seen.