It's Worse Than You Think: Halftime Between Two Lost Decades

[bhikkhu]

1. Typically economist-think, he ignores resource constraints to growth

...which are indicated by the persistent high cost of energy, which drives the high cost of those commodities that aren't already high because of scarcity and increased production costs. Oil is the obvious one, the larger part of which is now produced with a baseline break-even point around $90 a barrel - a huge paradigm shift over 10 years ago. Copper and most metals are another, and then there's phosphorous and NG, both critical for agriculture.

Two main points - the higher cost of energy and commodities reduces their utility as drivers of economic growth, and slows growth. The other point is that growth itself is primarily "real", being founded on real resources and materials; this being a finite planet, there is a limit to growth.

The modeling methods economists use tend to dismiss or ignore this, assuming that growth is somehow the birthright of any human economy if only it follows the correct ideology. Perhaps not so anymore!