In worst-case-scenario, global warming makes Middle-East uninhabitable by end of century [View all]

[DetlefK]

http://gizmodo.com/the-middle-east-could-become-too-hot-for-human-life-wit-1738801004

"Uninhabitable" in the sense of "any human taking a step outside will die of heat-stroke".

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Another baseline they had to establish? The exact level of heat and humidity a human could reasonably be expected to survive on a regular basis. They used a type of measurement called “wet bulb” heat, which is a complex concept that the authors simplify by describing it as “a combined measure of temperature and humidity, or ‘mugginess.” They pegged the maximum survivable temperature at six full hours of 35 Celsius or 95 Fahrenheit. Anything above that “would probably be intolerable even for the fittest of humans,” the write.

Which is what makes their projections so disturbing. Using RCP 8.5–aka the IDGAF scenario where emissions continue at the current rate–their model showed that a large portion of the Persian Gulf would exceed that maximum threshold of wet bulb survivability, especially over the Red Sea and the Gulf.

...

In this super-heated future, it would be extremely dangerous to spend time outside. “Even the most basic outdoor activities are likely to be severely impacted,” say the authors, who note that the conditions would have “severe consequences” for millions of pilgrims who make the Hajj to Mecca, which already uses substantial cooling technology like misters and air conditioners to cool pilgrims, like those seen below.

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And even for people who aren’t spending much time outdoors, access to air-conditioning will be absolutely crucial–which puts the poor at particular risk. “Under such conditions, climate change would possibly lead to premature death of the weakest–name, children and elderly,” they write.

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http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n2/full/nclimate2833.html


Look at the maps.
Iraq is fucked.
Southern Iran is fucked.
Eastern and central Saudi-Arabia is fucked.
The small arabian states along the Persian Gulf are fucked.
You think the drought that drove the Syrians into open rebellion against Assad was bad?