Has anyone else seen this map? [View all]

[SickOfTheOnePct]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

I can't speak to the veracity of it, I was sent the link by my brother (Republican). I did go into the FAQs to see how they derive their map, but again, can't speak to the veracity.

Yes, it's a long way until November, but why would President Obama even be close enough to Romney for any reasoning to make it look like he's behind?

Which polls do you use?
First of all, only neutral pollsters are used. Pollsters whose primary business is helping Democrats or Republicans get elected are not used. They tend to make their horse look better. When there are multiple polls for a race, the most recent poll is always used. The middle date of the polling period is what counts (not the release date). If other polls have middle polling dates within a week of the most recent one, they are all averaged together. This tends to smooth out variations.

What algorithm formula) is used to compute the map?
In 2004, we ran three different algorithms. The main page just used the most recent poll. The second algorithm averaged three days' worth of polls using only the nonpartisan pollsters. The third one included a mathematical formula for predicting how undecided voters would break based on historical data. The second one was most stable and gave the best final result, so this time a slight variation of it is used: The most recent poll is always used, and, if any other polls were taken within a week of it, they are all averaged together. This method tends to give a more stable result, so the colors don't jump all over the place due to one unusual poll.

Should I believe poll results?
Sometimes, but keep in mind the effects of methodology, undersampled demographic groups, and constantly changing public opinion.