A Tale of Two Parties | Krugman OpEd- NYT

[Igel]

3. That first paragraph says something.

Until that moment, nobody realized just how decadent Communism had become. It had tanks, guns, and nukes, but nobody really believed in its ideology anymore; its officials and enforcers were mere careerists....

Lots of people knew this.

"Nobody" is a bit of an exaggeration. There were true believers. But a lot of pundits had vested interests in maintaining the fiction that the USSR was powerful, stable, and going to last decades longer at the very least. Some liked the USSR and its counterbalance to the US; others had no interest in badmouthing it since they relied upon the good will of the PTB for access. Some just refused to admit what they knew out loud because they didn't want to be branded as Reaganites when all they were was factual and clear-thinking.

However,

..who folded at the first shock.

was the surprise, and was the subject of more than a little speculation. Ultimately, it boiled down to no orders coming from the top to do anything. The military, the apparatus, was split. While they dithered, facts on the ground fell out from under their control. In any event, while it could have been bloody, it wouldn't have been quick.