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NickB79

(20,300 posts)
25. Speculation can only do so much
Mon Jun 11, 2012, 06:32 PM
Jun 2012

You can't speculate and drive the price of a commodity through the roof that's widely available and abundant. There must be a strong underlying demand for the commodity in order for speculators to take it and run with it. While speculation did play a role in the 2007 oil price run-up, take it out of the equation and you still had $140/barrel oil with an underlying demand price point of $100/barrel. In the run-up to the Great Recession, there was indeed a large and growing demand for new oil from China and India, who's economies were growing at 10%/yr. The reason oil prices fell as low as they did wasn't just due to margin calls; the majority of the drop was due to demand destruction as countries and consumers simply couldn't afford to buy as much oil and it's derivatives as they used to. As far as using supertankers to store oil, you've got your dates mixed around. The oil companies were storing oil on tankers AFTER the price collapsed, hoping to re-juice the markets: http://seekingalpha.com/article/113846-super-tankers-and-super-volatile-oil-prices Before the crash, countries with booming economies were eager to secure as much of it as possible, signing long-term contracts and invading certain countries with lots of untapped reserves (cough, cough, Iraq War, cough).

As to what I propose, I guess that in a way I do believe we need to accept a lower standard of living. After all, if the entire planet lived the way Americans lived, we'd be so far over our carrying capacity that we'd burn through the planet's resources in no time. It would be unfair (and impossible) to tell the rest of the world that they can't have what we have. The American way of living is entirely unsustainable, and will come to an end this century, no matter what we do about it. If that makes you uncomfortable, I'm sorry. I agree with you that we need to build as much renewable infrastructure as possible, but the capital, time and resources needed to build out enough of it to support an expanding economy are probably out of our grasp at this time. I'm just hoping we can keep the lights on and the trains running for food transportation. We've pretty much passed the tipping point with regard to climate change, and are locked in for 6C or better of warming by the end of the 21st century. The changes this will bring to our society in the form of wild weather and food disruptions will bankrupt nations as they try to fight it.

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and the top 1% sucked it all up. n/t Horse with no Name Jun 2012 #1
Agreed bobobjohnae Jun 2012 #2
How, exactly? Most of this is due to the house price bubble deflating. Nye Bevan Jun 2012 #5
The one percent received a nice bail out on their failed investments. HuckleB Jun 2012 #6
By having the federal reserve buy their fecal mortgage backed securities at face value! kenny blankenship Jun 2012 #15
Kenny, this is one of the most righteous coalition_unwilling Jun 2012 #17
agreed. laundry_queen Jun 2012 #22
So how did Lehman Brothers go bankrupt? Nye Bevan Jun 2012 #20
Because it happened too fast laundry_queen Jun 2012 #23
Lehman bankruptcy happend before the cash-for-trash programs began. The coalition_unwilling Jun 2012 #24
here's one theory: HiPointDem Jun 2012 #32
Indeed a GREAT explanation........ socialist_n_TN Jun 2012 #26
Thanks for so eloquently proving my 1 line reply Horse with no Name Jun 2012 #27
+1. HiPointDem Jun 2012 #29
kenny blankenship speaks the truth. Prometheus Bound Jun 2012 #37
It was fake wealth to begin with NickB79 Jun 2012 #3
just compare 2001 ($106K) to $77K in 2011 - Huge drop with NO housing factor nt msongs Jun 2012 #4
zing! cthulu2016 Jun 2012 #8
Very true. I'm not arguing that there wasn't a big drop NickB79 Jun 2012 #9
Only if you think housing wasn't already in a bubble in 2001. boppers Jun 2012 #35
A bank lending against that fake value would have disagreed cthulu2016 Jun 2012 #7
All very good points. NickB79 Jun 2012 #10
Wages are not wealth, or worth. boppers Jun 2012 #31
The only the thing fake about it is that it was built on Ponzi bank credit. girl gone mad Jun 2012 #11
I have a different take on it NickB79 Jun 2012 #12
Any time you hear about "overpopulation" remember one thing Zalatix Jun 2012 #13
Who's talking about controlling overpopulation? NickB79 Jun 2012 #14
In 2009, world total fertility rate was 2.47 births per woman. It's likely lower today (recession/ HiPointDem Jun 2012 #34
Speculation drove these bubbles in commodities. girl gone mad Jun 2012 #16
"Economic growth does not have to come at the expense of the environment" The2ndWheel Jun 2012 #18
Speculation can only do so much NickB79 Jun 2012 #25
"You can't speculate and drive the price of a commodity through the roof that's widely available" girl gone mad Jun 2012 #28
I suggest investing in Tulips. boppers Jun 2012 #33
Sure looks like the predicted 'bumpy plauteau' to me n/t Strelnikov_ Jun 2012 #21
no, what you saw was the result of too much money chasing too few real investment opportunities = HiPointDem Jun 2012 #30
"Mission accomplished!" bighughdiehl Jun 2012 #19
Since 2001, every decile of the income distribution lost wealth except the top 10%. HiPointDem Jun 2012 #36
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