as far as I can see, Trump's numbers have always floated right around the magic 40% number, which basically is the Repub base and some add-on crazies. I don't see many additional supporters jumping on board.
One reason people get a bump is the media coverage, which typically isn't as strong as it has been this year. Usually, the convention is the first big rollout and the time when people first start to tune in. Shit, this year they treated every primary like fucking Tuesday in November. This election has been vastly over-hyped. The media has been saturating the airwaves. I don't see a bump from people that haven't been watching. Who could have avoided the shit-storm up til now?
So, I guess he'll get a 2-3 point bump. Like has been said above, they always do, but I don't see a big one and it wouldn't surprise me it if it stays within the MOE of the polls.
Hillary's bump will be bigger and more lasting. Good year to hold the convention last. 
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