General Discussion

saltpoint

(50,986 posts)

55. If there are no October surprises

Tue Sep 13, 2016, 07:08 PM

Sep 2016

for the Democratic ticket, then I think Nate Silver's percentages will likely hold.

In that outcome, Trump would not be able to overcome the significant percentage of opposition among key voting groups to remain competitive in the states whose electoral vote totals will decide the election.

Clinton is now competing in Texas, which seems to me an indication that her internals are suggesting that Trump's deplorables have hit a statistical ceiling and that demographic models generally and the Latino vote particularly may buoy her chances. How sweet it would be for a Democratic ticket to carry Texas.

There's also the mechanics of victory. Clinton-Kaine has vans fueled and waiting to get voters to the polls. Trump has barely opened field offices in several key states.

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Could Trump actually win this election? [View all] Cyrano Sep 2016 OP

Always campaign like you are 10 points behind liberal N proud Sep 2016 #1

Very possible HassleCat Sep 2016 #2

Yes oswaldactedalone Sep 2016 #41

I never thought GW would win in 2000, but it appears that Gore won and japple Sep 2016 #79

The polls are so close that it really scares me. The electoral vote count looks better, however, Arkansas Granny Sep 2016 #3

Come down off the ledge and look at 538.com GoneOffShore Sep 2016 #7

Nate says Hillary's got a 69.6% chance of winning. Jerry442 Sep 2016 #17

She's now at 64.3% chance of winning....... a kennedy Sep 2016 #69

and today day she's at 63.6% a kennedy Sep 2016 #73

CAnd this is what is starting to scare me. Her lead is eroding. chelsea0011 Sep 2016 #77

NOW, only this afternoon she's 60.8 % ! ! ! ! a kennedy Sep 2016 #78

NOW she's at 60.3% a kennedy Sep 2016 #80

60.0% a kennedy Sep 2016 #83

That's what I would have thought about George W. Bush Maven Sep 2016 #4

Bush won because Fl was rigged and Jeb was his brother Cyrano Sep 2016 #11

Rick Scott is the chair of Trump's Super PAC and Pam Bondi...well, we know her story. Maven Sep 2016 #20

You're partly right. But his re-election is the one that got to me. I still don't know how napi21 Sep 2016 #53

maybe not edhopper Sep 2016 #59

Don't Your Remember Swift Boating of John Kerry and Elizabeth Edwards - J ed dishatin Sep 2016 #64

Yep. Not just once, but twice. GoCubsGo Sep 2016 #21

My question is: How can the media side with this asshole and his asshole supporters? world wide wally Sep 2016 #5

No. rug Sep 2016 #6

Absolutely! It's terrifying to even think about! beaglelover Sep 2016 #8

Absolutely, positively, he can, and Hillary (and we) should be expecting it. Daemonaquila Sep 2016 #9

CORRECTION: Bush was appointed by SCOTUS the first time, elected the 2nd. Just had to clarify. n/t pepperbear Sep 2016 #30

Makes no nevermind, in practice. Daemonaquila Sep 2016 #68

That was H.L. Mencken. n/t meaculpa2011 Sep 2016 #39

Not a chance Amishman Sep 2016 #10

Running a 5k or running from zombies: never look over your shoulder and run faster! tandem5 Sep 2016 #12

To be honest... kentuck Sep 2016 #13

Lots of "reality TV" addicts and celebrity-followers who will likely vote for him. megahertz Sep 2016 #14

I love reality tv, and sadly, even watched The Apprentice ecstatic Sep 2016 #65

He's also woefully lacking in electoral votes lunatica Sep 2016 #15

73 state toss up is a good trick Egnever Sep 2016 #18

Thanks! I corrected my error lunatica Sep 2016 #22

Anything is possible Egnever Sep 2016 #16

Of course melman Sep 2016 #19

Almost anything could happen. lpbk2713 Sep 2016 #23

Lol..I'm borrowing that! misterhighwasted Sep 2016 #28

So, Trump has wings and can fly? I didn't know that, but it is a great deplorable likeness. Koinos Sep 2016 #54

I believe Hillary will win the election... Guilded Lilly Sep 2016 #24

Ahem.... Xolodno Sep 2016 #25

Or the ability of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory Rocknrule Sep 2016 #72

It's mathematically possible, but highly improbable. My bookie gives him 25/1 against. LanternWaste Sep 2016 #26

NO. misterhighwasted Sep 2016 #27

The trumpets in my sphere are absolutely convinced he will win OriginalGeek Sep 2016 #29

It's the same in my area. n/t Different Drummer Sep 2016 #40

A week from today the poll numbers will give us a good idea underpants Sep 2016 #31

Have you ever ridden a bus? AngryAmish Sep 2016 #32

I was heckled here because I expressed the idea that rand paul had a chance in his senatorial bid DrDan Sep 2016 #33

It's possible Trump could win. Angel Martin Sep 2016 #34

Possible but improbable Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #35

It is possible yes. romanic Sep 2016 #36

Very possible. Calista241 Sep 2016 #37

Hell yes. 538 give him about a 30% chance. N.T. Donald Ian Rankin Sep 2016 #38

He's a longshot, electorally but... Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #42

Yes, Trump can win. bigwillq Sep 2016 #43

There seem to be a lot of people voting third party. Imperialism Inc. Sep 2016 #44

He can't treestar Sep 2016 #45

No n/t malaise Sep 2016 #46

76 year old friend. EE degree. Retired airline captain. Not ignorant. trof Sep 2016 #47

If we don't get out the vote he can win. milestogo Sep 2016 #48

throw in misogyny and Hillary Hatred Hysteria Skittles Sep 2016 #49

I think he could democrattotheend Sep 2016 #50

they never thought the brexit vote would go the way it did....but i think not. spanone Sep 2016 #51

Complacency is the only thing that could elect him radical noodle Sep 2016 #52

YES!! We should be pushing the idea that he can, and every vote is needed so he doesn't. n/t Yo_Mama Sep 2016 #61

If there are no October surprises saltpoint Sep 2016 #55

We're going to teach his deplorables a valuable lesson after HRCs in power. ileus Sep 2016 #56

I keep wanting to hope it into unthinkable territory loyalsister Sep 2016 #57

I don't think so. Adrahil Sep 2016 #58

If you want to win elections, always assume your opponent can win. Yo_Mama Sep 2016 #60

Bush was elected twice NeoConsSuck Sep 2016 #62

Psychopaths from Nixon's CREEP and Dirty Tricks dishatin Sep 2016 #63

Really, Really Grotesque: Roger Stone and Morrow: pornographic sliming - Dirty Trickster Operators dishatin Sep 2016 #67

My husband assures me Trump will lose big. mountain grammy Sep 2016 #66

I' thinking, and I've said this so many other times.......I worry about the a kennedy Sep 2016 #71

Yes. His supporters will walk through snow drifts to vote for him, and defeat Clinton. JustABozoOnThisBus Sep 2016 #70

Only if Democrat voters stay home madokie Sep 2016 #74

My opinion (based on what I see around me) Amaril Sep 2016 #75

I live in Wisconsin where in 6 years jodymarie aimee Sep 2016 #76

Clearly it is possible. LisaL Sep 2016 #81

I wish the administrators would PPR people that post concern bee ess like this. tenderfoot Sep 2016 #82

This country is that stupid and that racist. geek tragedy Sep 2016 #84