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tclambert

(11,194 posts)

71. Nate Silver now shows Ohio leaning ever so slightly toward Hillary.

Wed Oct 5, 2016, 12:00 AM

Oct 2016

RealClearPolitics still shows Trump leading in Ohio.

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com predicts Hillary will likely win over 300 electoral votes.

realclearpolitics.com shows 205 electoral votes leaning toward Hillary, only 165 leaning toward Donald, with 168 toss-ups. This means Hillary needs 65 more to win, and Donald needs 105. In the toss-up states, Hillary leads by more than 2% for 72 electoral votes, and has a very slight lead (<2%) for 50 more (68 counting Ohio). Donald leads in states that give him only 29 more EVs. Result: Hillary wins 345 to 194. That means Donald would have to flip 76 EVs to win. He would have to flip all of the following: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado.

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Florida is dangerously close to being unwinnable... [View all] Drunken Irishman Oct 2016 OP

I'm feeling much better about all but 2 states. Funtatlaguy Oct 2016 #1

Ohio has been tough all along Cosmocat Oct 2016 #3

what trump DID very well in the first debate is appeal to the rust belt dembotoz Oct 2016 #15

They need to hammer away on avebury Oct 2016 #21

yes! Call him out on buying from China or lower-wage countries whenever he can. Akamai Oct 2016 #59

But how can they possibly believe his bullshit. rivegauche Oct 2016 #36

IF they rtracey Oct 2016 #44

you're absolutely right of course. And I agree nt rivegauche Oct 2016 #45

The fact that so many Trump supporters Charles Bukowski Oct 2016 #55

One of he seems to be doing well in Ohio is that the mainstream press is not reporting Hillary's Akamai Oct 2016 #60

Yep. It's astounding that he gets away with such blatant hypocricy. Dark n Stormy Knight Oct 2016 #62

It would be great to see Ohio fall off the list of battleground states. calimary Oct 2016 #39

LeBron James is on her side there, so maybe that will help. nt tblue37 Oct 2016 #47

Trump stole Bernie's bit of being anti-NAFTA. Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2016 #63

I think Trump lost NC this week jmowreader Oct 2016 #67

no way Trump wins OH Botany Oct 2016 #26

Trump could win OH, FL, NV, AND NC but still lose the election Major Nikon Oct 2016 #66

Clinton needs to run ads hammering Trump for buying all that steel and aluminum in China dbackjon Oct 2016 #37

Nate Silver now shows Ohio leaning ever so slightly toward Hillary. tclambert Oct 2016 #71

There's a pretty good chance that saltpoint Oct 2016 #2

Pennsylvania would be a miracle for Trump to win it... Wounded Bear Oct 2016 #29

Sounds very encouraging. I hope saltpoint Oct 2016 #31

I'm trying as hard as I can to dissuade people here from voting NightWatcher Oct 2016 #4

I'd encourage them to skip it this year awoke_in_2003 Oct 2016 #54

I'd like to see Rubio have a big loss also..n/t monmouth4 Oct 2016 #5

I'll second that. eom saltpoint Oct 2016 #7

Third! calimary Oct 2016 #40

trump morphing into junkyard dog mode doesn' appeal to college educated white women beachbum bob Oct 2016 #6

What is Ohio's deal? LW1977 Oct 2016 #8

You know, I wondered the same thing but I did hear an explanation the other day. EV_Ares Oct 2016 #9

Ive been to Ohio and well retrowire Oct 2016 #11

Their demographic has not changed GulfCoast66 Oct 2016 #65

+1 uponit7771 Oct 2016 #75

Ohio ckimmy57 Oct 2016 #10

This Floridian is soon to start GOTV efforts mcar Oct 2016 #12

The cuba issue may have galvanized the Cuban community against Trump. TXCritter Oct 2016 #13

There is no path for Trump Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #14

except the Bush path, rigging elections. Coyotl Oct 2016 #17

Luckily we have Hillary Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #25

From your keyboard to God's eyes Hekate Oct 2016 #73

Historically, this is true Hekate Oct 2016 #72

There's about 5 states you can say that about... Wounded Bear Oct 2016 #32

I've been out walking for Hillary this week...in FL Sancho Oct 2016 #16

OH needs ads against Republicans supporting Trump. Cycle2016 Oct 2016 #18

Kudo's to all in Florida working on the GOTV!! aeroman Oct 2016 #19

Welcome to DU, aeroman! calimary Oct 2016 #41

You were dangerously close to having your butt kicked.... LynneSin Oct 2016 #20

Ohio = Indiana Cakes488 Oct 2016 #22

Welcome to DU, Cakes488! calimary Oct 2016 #42

I feel the same way about NY !! Cakes488 Oct 2016 #49

I remember the night of the New York primary. calimary Oct 2016 #68

On the page you linked to, I see an average 2.8 pt spread over Trump across all polls Bucky Oct 2016 #23

I can't believe MN is listed as toss up. geardaddy Oct 2016 #24

MN is not a toss-up VMA131Marine Oct 2016 #27

The link in the OP has MN as a toss-up geardaddy Oct 2016 #30

MN is not a tossup. Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #28

Mn is a bit like Penn...been blue in the presidential for many years...nt Wounded Bear Oct 2016 #33

The four-step process for covering politics in Pennsylvania: Orrex Oct 2016 #52

LOL!!! Wounded Bear Oct 2016 #53

Somewhere this week I read bucolic_frolic Oct 2016 #34

Phew.......... had me going for a minute 'till I read the content. RKP5637 Oct 2016 #35

Florida imploded for Trump, that's for sure. Helen Borg Oct 2016 #38

LOL DarthDem Oct 2016 #57

As a native Floridian bullsnarfle Oct 2016 #43

Yeah, go in for the kill! ananda Oct 2016 #46

In poker parlance, Trump needs a straight flush. Hillary just needs a pair of any blue states. 4lbs Oct 2016 #48

Gang, Florida boy here DonCoquixote Oct 2016 #50

I believe you. The GOP cannot win without cheating, and they cheat as much as possible Hekate Oct 2016 #74

Yea! Sunny05 Oct 2016 #51

if FL, PA, and VA go to HRC, this thing wraps up real early Tuesday night 0rganism Oct 2016 #56

Almost 30 years living in this state....I call this nonsense davidn3600 Oct 2016 #58

Get out.... Hachetman Oct 2016 #61

Your words to God's ear. forest444 Oct 2016 #64

yeah baby. Warren DeMontague Oct 2016 #69

Wait'll the hurricane blows Zika mosquitoes everywhere... Liberty Belle Oct 2016 #70

I have to admit it took me hours to click on this thread because the title made me nauseous LibraLiz1973 Oct 2016 #76

All I see are Hillary ads on TV in SW Florida HockeyMom Oct 2016 #77