Two BIG problems with Hillary way in the lead [View all]

[davidn3600]

1. It gives people reason to be complacent. When you are told your candidate is inevitably going to win. There is a chance it may lower turnout. And I think that is a real threat. Because right now, many commentators and news media are saying "it's over" and "it's done" and "the math is impossible." This isn't going to discourage a single Trump voter because they already hate the media and already think they are against the world. They DO have higher enthusiasm numbers.

2. You get a "Brexit."
When Britain held their Brexit vote in June, polls all agreed that the UK would vote to stay in the EU. However, Brexit won. So what happened? Were the polls wrong? Not necessarily. Later analysis showed many people believed the polls that the vote would fail. Therefore some people voted to leave so that it would be a "protest vote." But they didn't want it to actually pass! The pollsters DO NOT take into account this kind of voter psychology.

So what do you think happens if some Democratic voters say...."Trump is going to lose, so that means I can safely vote for Jill Stein now!"

I also don't know how much stock I put in some of these polls. I was looking at the RCP graph showing Trump vs Clinton for the past year. You know what I see a ton of? Inconsistency. The graph is like a roller coaster with lots of peaks and valleys for both candidates. It also seems to go in cycles. Which mean if the cycle continues, polls will be narrowing by the time election day rolls around. I also think something is wrong with them because of these swings back and forth. Is there really that many people out there flipping their votes back and forth? Are that many people truly that uncommitted that they flip every time a tape is released or a WikiLeak email is released?

Remember what Yogi Berra said, "it ain't over till it's over." In the sports world, if you get a big lead and try to sit on it and play conservatively, you tend to get bit. We still have 3 1/2 weeks to go.