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GarroHorus

(1,055 posts)

79. What has changed is the REPORTING of exit polls

Mon Jun 18, 2012, 10:42 AM

Jun 2012

The night starts out without all the data. If early exit polling indicates a fairly wide margin and the early results from those key districts align, the race is called. If early exit polling indicates a blowout, the race is called the moment the polls close. If there are wonky results comparing early exit polling data to early returns but a clear outcome is still expected, they report "too EARLY to call" If early exit polling indicates it's within a percentage point or two, it's "too CLOSE to call".

We saw this play out in WI. Initially, the early data indicated "too CLOSE to call", then additional exit polling data came into play and it was "too EARLY to call" for a few minutes. Then it became clear the results were going to be close to the full exit polling data and hte race was called for Walker.

It's all about the competition in the media, not some weird conspiracy to "hack the vote".

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Wisconsin: None dare call it vote rigging [View all] Huey P. Long Jun 2012 OP

"push and pray" Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #1

Who's behind these private companies? It's hard to tell: The corporate lines – Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #44

"Hacking Democracy" (HBO documentary link)- Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #67

Clint CURTIS wrote Software to STEAL ELECTIONS Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #84

Princeton University Exposes Diebold Flaws Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #97

Sequoia Part 1 Those with access can hack with programmed ROM chip.wmv Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #99

When are we going to do something about this for real. RC Jun 2012 #2

I go to the board of elections SemperEadem Jun 2012 #3

If early voting is similar to other places, your vote is never counted. Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #6

Bizzzzzzzzzzz; greiner3 Jun 2012 #16

The hostility/sarcasm is sort of funny in its defensiveness. Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #28

Excuse me . . . MrModerate Jun 2012 #34

It's the PROVISIONAL ballots that are almost never counted. nt patrice Jun 2012 #51

You're overgeneralizing. Igel Jun 2012 #106

where I vote, it is counted SemperEadem Jun 2012 #175

Here in LA County, early votes are counted as absentee votes. All absentees are handled by ES&S. robinlynne Jun 2012 #95

I'm a poll worker in Massachusetts millijac Jun 2012 #138

The GOP corporate media supports this through constant predictions... Atman Jun 2012 #4

The corporate news blackout sulphurdunn Jun 2012 #5

Its not just the corporate media. Our 'representatives' are stone silent as well. Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #8

+1000 shcrane71 Jun 2012 #19

This is why the Repigs are so confident. madashelltoo Jun 2012 #7

Howard Dean and Rush Holt have been right all along DFW Jun 2012 #9

I remember watching that Peter KIng quote on TV and was aghast. Chipper Chat Jun 2012 #18

"are there programs that can be used to secretly fix elections?" Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #31

Thank You for this important article!! K&R hue Jun 2012 #10

Around here, none dare call it conspiracy theory BS GarroHorus Jun 2012 #11

Wanna buy a piece of land? Zorra Jun 2012 #14

Ha ha GarroHorus Jun 2012 #17

False equivalency proud2BlibKansan Jun 2012 #25

Ha ha GarroHorus Jun 2012 #29

I take it you know all about what they say proud2BlibKansan Jun 2012 #111

Fine. You drive a hard bargain. $150 an acre, firm. Zorra Jun 2012 #27

No evidence of electronic voting machime fraud during an election has ever... GarroHorus Jun 2012 #32

Except right here in this thread proud2BlibKansan Jun 2012 #113

No evidence was presented GarroHorus Jun 2012 #114

Exit polls are evidence. They are used to detect tampering in every other real democracy. Exultant Democracy Jun 2012 #127

They only detect tampering when the exit polls are horribly divergent from the results GarroHorus Jun 2012 #130

7% isn't even close to the margin of error Exultant Democracy Jun 2012 #181

Where is the paper trail for the exit polls? skepticscott Jun 2012 #155

I don't have the time to teach you a poli sci statistics class, but your question is silly. Exultant Democracy Jun 2012 #182

The question is not about statistics skepticscott Jun 2012 #183

No you question was entirely about the validity of statistical analysis as a check against fraud Exultant Democracy Jun 2012 #184

Ohio SOS Jennifer Brunner called Ohio's electronic machines 'easily hackable'. peace13 Jun 2012 #139

I'll believe her Aerows Jun 2012 #162

You're trying too hard. sabrina 1 Jun 2012 #100

Actually, I'm not trying at all. GarroHorus Jun 2012 #104

No experts on voting in the US? sabrina 1 Jun 2012 #117

Actually, the poster is doing the equivilent of the hear, see, speak no evil routine. Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #107

I recently read a third graders' essay that read much like your own statement. LanternWaste Jun 2012 #141

"not a shred of real evidence " zeemike Jun 2012 #21

Ha ha GarroHorus Jun 2012 #33

I know...that is my point. zeemike Jun 2012 #41

You actually took my response wrong GarroHorus Jun 2012 #43

Except that there actually IS evidence for voter fraud zeemike Jun 2012 #76

There is NO evidence of widespread voter fraud GarroHorus Jun 2012 #81

do you want real proof? Botany Jun 2012 #147

Maybe the evidence you're looking for can only be found groovedaddy Jun 2012 #178

Obama has a paper genuine birth certificate. Zorra Jun 2012 #92

I see the paper recording of my vote when I vote on a machine GarroHorus Jun 2012 #94

Vote flipping: Zorra Jun 2012 #108

Not a single instance of that in any election GarroHorus Jun 2012 #110

Hoooweee!!! Should we believe what we see, or what you tell us? Zorra Jun 2012 #126

That is exactly correct. The Doctor. Jun 2012 #86

At the risk of being redundant (which obviously is nothing new to you), hue Jun 2012 #30

I vote on epectronic machines and my vote is valid and verified GarroHorus Jun 2012 #36

Do you really believe Jake2413 Jun 2012 #48

Do you really believe a massive widespread conspiracy to do that exists? GarroHorus Jun 2012 #55

Actually it would take one person putting one line of code is a program. Jake2413 Jun 2012 #68

Then the same could have been done with the old IBM punch cards GarroHorus Jun 2012 #71

You are correct punch cards could have been hacked as well. Jake2413 Jun 2012 #74

Early voting GarroHorus Jun 2012 #83

Here is link for you to checkout. Jake2413 Jun 2012 #140

The Ohio Secretary of State Aerows Jun 2012 #161

Yes GarroHorus Jun 2012 #177

Supply evidence that the record is accurate. eridani Jun 2012 #176

Uncounted - Clint Curtis: Million Dollar Programmer Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #35

But that is not "credible evidences" zeemike Jun 2012 #46

Haha...is that what is said? Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #78

The discrepancy between exit polls and actual results IS evidence TomClash Jun 2012 #58

No, it is not. GarroHorus Jun 2012 #66

It is evidence and you have not refuted that evidence TomClash Jun 2012 #77

What has changed is the REPORTING of exit polls GarroHorus Jun 2012 #79

I am familiar with this point TomClash Jun 2012 #96

The same thing happens in elections the Democratic candidates win. GarroHorus Jun 2012 #98

Why is it so rare for Democratic candidates, though? TomClash Jun 2012 #128

It's not so rare for Democratic candidates GarroHorus Jun 2012 #129

"It's the same for both" TomClash Jun 2012 #158

Calling Bob Fitrakis a conspiracy nut is in itself embarrassing. EFerrari Jun 2012 #73

The tactic is tried and true. Make fun and name call to get people to dismiss. Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #75

Fitrakis is pretty much the gold standard on this topic EFerrari Jun 2012 #85

Yes - agree. Bob Fitrakis is highly credible on this topic. n/t Misskittycat Jun 2012 #91

+1. Yep. It's sheep chow. nt Zorra Jun 2012 #93

+1 proud2BlibKansan Jun 2012 #132

Take time and listen to Clint Curtis tell us why the Florida Machines were midnight Jun 2012 #160

Take a look at this thread Samantha Jun 2012 #171

It is not up to voters to prove election fraud eridani Jun 2012 #174

The Democratic Party has a lot of resources. When will they recognize that rhett o rick Jun 2012 #12

Exception,in 2010 when the Repukes gained control of the house there INdemo Jun 2012 #13

One only need to watch/listen to which party/politician the Corporate media is fawning over. shcrane71 Jun 2012 #23

Our framer's of our Constitution would have the majority of these election thieves in INdemo Jun 2012 #80

+1000 shcrane71 Jun 2012 #103

my question is this liberalnationalist Jun 2012 #15

Review the Max Cleland-Saxby Chambliss senate race. Chipper Chat Jun 2012 #20

Yes, that is yet another one... -eom Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #37

Then PROVE IT GarroHorus Jun 2012 #39

You can't prove anything if you decide what evidence's to look at. zeemike Jun 2012 #59

You can show a machine is hackable GarroHorus Jun 2012 #62

Well that can NEVER be shown because it is a machine zeemike Jun 2012 #69

Are there any paperless voting systems in use in Wisconsin? slackmaster Jun 2012 #125

They probably do have a paper trail in most places zeemike Jun 2012 #133

Which is why paper trails are useless. We need paper *ballots* EFerrari Jun 2012 #134

Absolute zeemike Jun 2012 #145

Your answer is a bit vague, but assuming that there is always some kind of paper audit trail, how... slackmaster Jun 2012 #135

Much different. zeemike Jun 2012 #142

You didn't read the article then.... Exit polling is rather precise.. When we send people glowing Jun 2012 #38

Perspective. Igel Jun 2012 #112

No exit polls are not just exit polls. zeemike Jun 2012 #54

yes they are liberalnationalist Jun 2012 #87

You confuse the use of them now with the use of them in the past. Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #90

if there is rigging liberalnationalist Jun 2012 #102

Shouldn't this kind of stuff be in the Creative Speculation forum? Nye Bevan Jun 2012 #22

I think it should GarroHorus Jun 2012 #40

There is much evidence that voting machines can easily be hacked... hue Jun 2012 #42

There is ZERO evidence that they have ever been hacked during an election GarroHorus Jun 2012 #45

Who cares if there is "ZERO" evidence. That does not mean there is no evidence. hue Jun 2012 #47

Hey.... that also applies to the shooting down of Paul Wellstone's plane! Nye Bevan Jun 2012 #52

This tactic is old. Can't blame you for trying. Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #61

Then prove your allegations GarroHorus Jun 2012 #63

OK. I suppose "who cares if there is zero evidence" is a better tactic (nt) Nye Bevan Jun 2012 #70

new evidence is being uncovered all the time... hue Jun 2012 #82

Yeah, right GarroHorus Jun 2012 #57

I agree Garro liberalnationalist Jun 2012 #88

No paper trail. Where do you get the evidence? roody Jun 2012 #60

Or reported, not found (not looked for) and not reported. siligut Jun 2012 #89

So the evidence for the evidence is that there is no evidence? Flatulo Jun 2012 #169

"There's no place like home"! Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #50

If there is evidence, PRESENT IT! GarroHorus Jun 2012 #56

You mean sworn testimony under oath is not evidence? zeemike Jun 2012 #64

Sworn testimony that something could happen is not evidence that it has happened. GarroHorus Jun 2012 #65

Which goes to opportunity and motive. zeemike Jun 2012 #72

By the legal standard of evidence, there is evidence. Jim Lane Jun 2012 #143

Ol' Garro Caretha Jun 2012 #156

How do you know that? How do we verify that votes have been accurately sabrina 1 Jun 2012 #101

The same way we verify the votes were accurately counted with the old paper ballot. GarroHorus Jun 2012 #105

I'm talking about votes flipping on the machines. Give one instance of when the machines were sabrina 1 Jun 2012 #118

Give one instance where vote flipping actually happened. GarroHorus Jun 2012 #119

So, iow, people cannot verify the votes in those machines. sabrina 1 Jun 2012 #122

Sure you can. I did it the last time I used a touch screen GarroHorus Jun 2012 #124

Never ever, with proprietary machines, with proprietary software, owned and maintained by private RC Jun 2012 #131

When you are paid to 'not believe' something and your check depends on it Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #136

Those machines must be destroyed. The Doctor. Jun 2012 #24

I agree, Doctor. Daleks are evil machines. Or did you mean cybermen? (nt) Nye Bevan Jun 2012 #53

I lived in a very RED state when the Tea Baggers were taking over. shcrane71 Jun 2012 #26

Instant RunOff Paper Ballots, Marked by Hand, Encrypted Receipts, & Ballots Counted In Public on patrice Jun 2012 #49

I agree that fraud may have been involved, but... hrmjustin Jun 2012 #109

Spending tons of money to alter the results of an election is vote-rigging. nt Comrade_McKenzie Jun 2012 #115

Yes, it's unfortunate that A) unlimited amounts can be spent on an election by anyone, and B) slackmaster Jun 2012 #120

this issue is the ONE librechik Jun 2012 #123

We need Anonymous LiberalLovinLug Jun 2012 #116

I'd never seen an electronic vote machine here in California until 2008 and it was unused where I we ryan_cats Jun 2012 #121

GOP even does it to themselves when needed- Huey P. Long Jun 2012 #137

I just posted this to my facebook ... Clouseau2 Jun 2012 #144

so if the Korporate Konservative xxqqqzme Jun 2012 #146

well written, so glad someone is saying it Ghost of Huey Long Jun 2012 #148

That's because we live in a corporatocracy, not a democracy. valerief Jun 2012 #149

Don't blame me I voted electronically Hubert Flottz Jun 2012 #150

I was dismayed when I saw long-term posters HERE a2liberal Jun 2012 #151

Do you think Paul Wellstone's plane may have been sabotaged? Nye Bevan Jun 2012 #153

Are all the mail-in ballots in Washington tallied by hand? shcrane71 Jun 2012 #159

I'm sure they'll get around to calling it fraud as soon as they label the 2004 Ohio exit poll TrollBuster9090 Jun 2012 #152

Germany outlaws electronic voting 12zelda12 Jun 2012 #154

From the article: Aerows Jun 2012 #165

You mean this part? What they call "the latest PR line from e-voting vendors"? Zorra Jun 2012 #167

K&R Blue Owl Jun 2012 #157

Me too... Without an election system that people believe in, we can't shcrane71 Jun 2012 #180

The same people josejimenez Jun 2012 #163

We could do a massive show-up on our own and count them ourselves. What do you suggest we do? lonestarnot Jun 2012 #164

There may be a window of opportunity. mojowork_n Jun 2012 #170

What to do?! 12zelda12 Jun 2012 #166

The most shocking part is how public opinion polls before the election tritsofme Jun 2012 #168

Yes, it is indeed shocking how they have managed to rig public opinion. slackmaster Jun 2012 #179

kick Angry Dragon Jun 2012 #172

American Exceptionalism at work again! n/t RKP5637 Jun 2012 #173