Patrick Murphy just beat Rubio. . .

[Awsi Dooger]

32. Midterms destroy over governorship numbers

Two-thirds of governorships are decided in midterm years. Single females don't show up in midterms. That kills our chances. Females are 54% of the electorate in presidential years but only 51% in midterms. I don't see any foreseeable change, not unless a wildly unpopular Republican is president.

Rick Scott never would have won, without the nationwide tilt favoring his side both times. His margins were well inside the slant. Alex Sink was particularly devastating. She had the late controversy when an aide may have given her advice via cell phone during a CNN debate. Even if it didn't happen or wasn't much, it allowed Scott to be on the offensive in the final days. I'm still sick about it.

Anyway, I don't have much hope for Murphy. It feels like a 3 or 4 point defeat, simply by sampling opinion here in the Miami area. Plenty of people say they wish Rubio were atop the ticket and not Trump. One rightwing house down the street has its front yard plastered with Rubio signs, left over from the primaries. Nothing about Trump.

Hillary would probably have to win this state by 6 or 8 points to drag Murphy along with her.