This election is a binary event. Calling for Obama's defeat *IS* advocating for Romney's victory.

[jeff47]

111. Not in a convenient link.

Since we're talking about Congressional districts, accurate polling comes from a ton of different polls that cover only a small area. National data isn't as useful because a ton of liberals showing up in California doesn't help us win races in Florida. Then, we have to look at the polls in the races where incumbent Democrats lost to get the best idea of "what went wrong".

Then the next problem is identifying who is actually a "liberal", because demagoguery by Republicans and the media has been very effective at convincing people to not use that word even when they support liberal policies. Which means you have to spend some time reading each one of those piles of polls because you have to get to the parts where they ask about specific policies. Change in support for liberal policies is about the best proxy you can get for change in liberal turnout, on the assumption that most people wouldn't change their mind on, say, abortion, "welfare", and schools in 2 years.

When I took the time to do this for several races after 2010, the Democrats who turned out were much less liberal compared to 2008. If moderates had stayed home and liberals voted, support for liberal policies would have risen. Instead, support for liberal policies fell.

Frankly, I don't have the time to re-do that kind of analysis now, especially with the difficulty of digging up old, non-national polling data.