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A HERETIC I AM

(24,876 posts)
43. I haven't responded directly to the OP because I am not in the habit of giving investment advice....
Mon Jun 18, 2012, 11:33 PM
Jun 2012

to complete strangers on the internet. Not only is it unethical, it is downright stupid because I know NOTHING about the person who asked the question. Even though I am no longer licensed, I still think the regulations that prohibited me from giving such advice are a good idea. That is the reason the few registered reps we have on DU won't give answers to questions like that.

It's wrong to do so.

For all I know, the OP is the type of person who has no business being in the market at all. Perhaps they should just sit in the Money Market fund in their 401(k) and be happy with it. Or perhaps they should be 100% in stocks with a 75% weighting in BRICS, Developing Market Funds and Small Cap. How the hell should I know? Some people are investors. Some people are savers. There is a HUGE difference.


Do you think they should jump in now?


This I can say without being too specific and is basic, generic advice; If your time horizon is long enough, there is never a bad time to get into the market.

Do you agree or disagree with me, that the time to jump in was back in 2009?


I agree with you 100%, but that is completely beside the larger point, isn't it? How many people do you know sold every equity position they had in September of 2007, when the market was at or near its peak of 14,000? And how many of them bought back in, in March of 2009 when the blood was all over the floor and the Dow bottomed out in the 6600 range? Damned few, I'll bet.

Sure I agree with you, but so what? It doesn't help the OP one iota, now does it? Hindsight is 20/20 as they say.

The best play with a 401(k) is, again, depending on your time horizon - the longer the better - to simply ride things out and keep contributing. What we saw over the last 4 years was quite possibly the greatest opportunity for "Dollar Cost Averaging" in history. The cheaper Mutual Fund shares get, the more shares you get with each paychecks contribution. The people who lost their shirts over the last few years were the people who SOLD. All the people who just kept buying into their plan and havent sold anything haven't lost a thin dime. You only lose money when you sell, as I am sure you know.

Want to know what the perfect play was (as I said, hindsight and all that) between Sept. 2007 and now?

This might have been difficult to do in a 401(k) unless your plan offered a long term Treasury bond fund, but here it is;

If during the course of the month of September 2007 you had sold every equity position you had and bought recent issue, 30 year Treasury bonds with the money, you could have gotten those bonds for between 90 and 95 cents on the dollar - between $900 and $950 per bond for a bond with a face value of $1000 AND a coupon of 4.5%, meaning each bond was paying $45.00 per year in interest. If you had then held those bonds until December of 2008 when the yield on the 30 year bottomed out at less than 2.65%, then SOLD those bonds, you would have gotten around $1400 a piece for them and been paid $45 for the pleasure of owning them. A gain of over 60% while everyone that was selling during that panic was losing anywhere up to 60% Then, just to make it REALLY delicious, you waited until March or so of '09 and bought Ford stock, you could have gotten it for around $1.50 a share. Look where Ford is today. Trading in the $10.00 range and it peaked at over $18.00 a year ago January.

Nothing tricky, just exchanging equities for long bonds for 14 months.


Do you think the OP should running screaming?


Only if it makes him or her feel better.

You've got the experience, please, enlighten us.


There is one thing they DON'T give you when you pass the Series 7 Exam;
A crystal ball.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

IMO, fuck that scam. NYC_SKP Jun 2012 #1
Only gamble what you can afford to lose Vincardog Jun 2012 #2
Sure. This is a great time to buy marybourg Jun 2012 #3
Buy Apple Stock. nt onehandle Jun 2012 #4
Don't you find it amazing that republicans are suppose to hate social security but that has southernyankeebelle Jun 2012 #5
I never jumped out and my IRA has done very well since Obama took doc03 Jun 2012 #6
Well, you can, sort of Warpy Jun 2012 #7
Depends on your age. If you are young, maybe you have the time to sit out a bad JDPriestly Jan 2013 #52
Thanks for your informing comments. slater71 Jun 2012 #8
I was scared of Bush and pulled out spring 2001. hollysmom Jun 2012 #9
Your second paragraph is a bit misleading A HERETIC I AM Jun 2012 #15
These are bank CDs hollysmom Jun 2012 #18
ALL CD's are Bank CD's A HERETIC I AM Jun 2012 #22
I don't know how many wys I can say this - no hollysmom Jun 2012 #40
Feelin' kinda like you wanna bash your head against the wall there, are ya? A HERETIC I AM Jun 2012 #42
no hollysmom Jun 2012 #47
I have had a simple investment strategy Generic Brad Jun 2012 #10
I have an even simpler strategy: marybourg Jun 2012 #14
live below your means JDPriestly Jan 2013 #53
You've fleshed out all the details. Absolutely right. marybourg Jan 2013 #54
I never jumped out, but if I had Curmudgeoness Jun 2012 #11
Invest in US Treasury Bonds. Odin2005 Jun 2012 #12
LOL... A HERETIC I AM Jun 2012 #16
if you want <1% returns sure. Meanwhile blue chips often pay 3-7 on dividends alone. dmallind Jun 2012 #30
And some "blue chips" end up being duds Art_from_Ark Jun 2012 #44
Familiarize yourself with the term.. sendero Jun 2012 #13
The day after 9/11, I took everything out of the stock and have NEVER looked back benld74 Jun 2012 #17
LOL. ok Logical Jun 2012 #41
It's hindsight, but you're 3 years too late. BadgerKid Jun 2012 #19
401 what? hobbit709 Jun 2012 #20
Yep, buy High sell Low - that's a great market strategy. cbdo2007 Jun 2012 #21
The time to jump back in was March 2009. JoePhilly Jun 2012 #23
Unfortunately..... A HERETIC I AM Jun 2012 #26
Almost all of them allow you to rebalance your portfolio. JoePhilly Jun 2012 #28
Thanks for the lesson , but I'm way ahead of you A HERETIC I AM Jun 2012 #31
Humm ... JoePhilly Jun 2012 #33
I haven't responded directly to the OP because I am not in the habit of giving investment advice.... A HERETIC I AM Jun 2012 #43
Yes, but you seemed very willing to respond to others ... even laugh at a few of them. JoePhilly Jun 2012 #48
Spent mine years ago.....nt Wounded Bear Jun 2012 #24
"Sell in May and Go Away" (until November) KurtNYC Jun 2012 #25
That does seem to be the pattern in recent years. JoePhilly Jun 2012 #34
That's really old school market timing KurtNYC Jun 2012 #38
Recently, the market has been pulling back in the early summer ... JoePhilly Jun 2012 #39
My policy is generally not to do whatever everyone else seems to be doing slackmaster Jun 2012 #27
Should have never left - and added more in 3-4 years ago if you could dmallind Jun 2012 #29
Since they create the storms its hard to gauge. raouldukelives Jun 2012 #32
Hold off until next year. mainer Jun 2012 #35
Do the opposite of what your instincts tell you taught_me_patience Jun 2012 #36
Trying to time the market is difficult. See an investment adviser about what your portfolio should yellowcanine Jun 2012 #37
Stocks are a sucker's bet Art_from_Ark Jun 2012 #45
Only if you don't mind gambling with your money. Maybe try Atlantic City, you'll probably sabrina 1 Jun 2012 #46
NO! Xyzse Jun 2012 #49
Every now and again I return to bookmarked market threads. dmallind Jan 2013 #50
Any small fish who tries to swim in a sea of full of super-fast computer sharks is likely JDPriestly Jan 2013 #51
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