General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: So do we jump back in the market with our 401`s? [View all]A HERETIC I AM
(24,876 posts)to complete strangers on the internet. Not only is it unethical, it is downright stupid because I know NOTHING about the person who asked the question. Even though I am no longer licensed, I still think the regulations that prohibited me from giving such advice are a good idea. That is the reason the few registered reps we have on DU won't give answers to questions like that.
It's wrong to do so.
For all I know, the OP is the type of person who has no business being in the market at all. Perhaps they should just sit in the Money Market fund in their 401(k) and be happy with it. Or perhaps they should be 100% in stocks with a 75% weighting in BRICS, Developing Market Funds and Small Cap. How the hell should I know? Some people are investors. Some people are savers. There is a HUGE difference.
This I can say without being too specific and is basic, generic advice; If your time horizon is long enough, there is never a bad time to get into the market.
I agree with you 100%, but that is completely beside the larger point, isn't it? How many people do you know sold every equity position they had in September of 2007, when the market was at or near its peak of 14,000? And how many of them bought back in, in March of 2009 when the blood was all over the floor and the Dow bottomed out in the 6600 range? Damned few, I'll bet.
Sure I agree with you, but so what? It doesn't help the OP one iota, now does it? Hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
The best play with a 401(k) is, again, depending on your time horizon - the longer the better - to simply ride things out and keep contributing. What we saw over the last 4 years was quite possibly the greatest opportunity for "Dollar Cost Averaging" in history. The cheaper Mutual Fund shares get, the more shares you get with each paychecks contribution. The people who lost their shirts over the last few years were the people who SOLD. All the people who just kept buying into their plan and havent sold anything haven't lost a thin dime. You only lose money when you sell, as I am sure you know.
Want to know what the perfect play was (as I said, hindsight and all that) between Sept. 2007 and now?
This might have been difficult to do in a 401(k) unless your plan offered a long term Treasury bond fund, but here it is;
If during the course of the month of September 2007 you had sold every equity position you had and bought recent issue, 30 year Treasury bonds with the money, you could have gotten those bonds for between 90 and 95 cents on the dollar - between $900 and $950 per bond for a bond with a face value of $1000 AND a coupon of 4.5%, meaning each bond was paying $45.00 per year in interest. If you had then held those bonds until December of 2008 when the yield on the 30 year bottomed out at less than 2.65%, then SOLD those bonds, you would have gotten around $1400 a piece for them and been paid $45 for the pleasure of owning them. A gain of over 60% while everyone that was selling during that panic was losing anywhere up to 60% Then, just to make it REALLY delicious, you waited until March or so of '09 and bought Ford stock, you could have gotten it for around $1.50 a share. Look where Ford is today. Trading in the $10.00 range and it peaked at over $18.00 a year ago January.
Nothing tricky, just exchanging equities for long bonds for 14 months.
Only if it makes him or her feel better.
There is one thing they DON'T give you when you pass the Series 7 Exam;
A crystal ball.