Matt Taibbi Interviews Bernie Sanders: Where We Go From Here

[Grey Lemercier]

3. Lowest power level for the Democrats since the Civil War when State governments are added in

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/12/these-3-maps-show-just-how-dominant-republicans-are-in-america-after-tuesday/

Results are still trickling in, but it looks like Republicans will still control an all-time high 69 of 99 state legislative chambers. They'll hold at least 33 governorships, tying a 94-year-old record.





Urban shift is bad news for Democrats trying to use Donald Trump's unpopularity to chip away at or even erase Republicans' historic majority in the House of Representatives. Because Democrats are clustered in one area of the state, they have less of a say in who represents congressional (and state-level) districts in the rest of the state.




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Lowest power level for the Democrats since the Civil War.

We have to start taking back the states, the 2020 Census could further entrench Republican dominance in the US House if they gerrymander even more districts. The Democratic Party is good (and not even that good, apparently) at one thing, a giant push every 4 years for POTUS. We are weak as hell at midterms, and even worse at statewide levels. The rot is damn near insurmountable until demographic change kicks in, but that takes decades. I also full expect white voter power blocks to continue to congeal, IF Trumpism produces even moderate successes, which will be spun into triumphs of caesarian proportions by the lap dog corporate press.

A look at 2018, 2020, and 2022 Senate races

2018

Dems will have 11 or possibly 13 hard races, all defending seats, many in red or purple states, all in an off year, and we historically do poorly in many midterms (hopefully this will NOT be the case)

FL Bill Nelson (probably retiring, but will be hard race even if not)
IN Joe Donnelly <<< probably toast, a deep Red state now, look at Bayh's collapse and Trump won by almost 20 points
MI Debbie Stabenow (2nd safest of these 11, but will not be easy)
MO Claire McCaskill <<< probably toast, DEEP red now, she barely beat an insane Rethug last time, and Trump won by over 21 points
MT Jon Tester <<< probably toast, DEEP Red state now, Trump won by 24 points
ND Heidi Heitkamp <<<< toast, she barely won last time, and trump won the state by over 35 points, the other ND Senator, Republican Hoeven won 78.6 to 17%
VA- Tim Kaine, (safest of the 11, but again, will be a battle)
NJ Bob Menendez (mainly due to his criminal case, if it is not resolved and he runs still)
PA Bob Casey (definitely a hard race)
WI Tammy Baldwin (definitely a hard race)
WV Joe Manchin (may switch to Republican or might be in big trouble, over SEVENTY percent of WV voted Trump, Manchin already said he will support all of Trump's picks, and Trump will de-reg coal)

then these

NM Martin Heinrich (probably safe unless Susanna Martinez, who is termed out, runs)
OH Sherrod Brown (not as safe as Heinrich, especially if termed out Kasich runs for Senate) Portman won by over 21 points

ME (Angus King, Independent, will probably win fairly easily)


The only Republican seats Dems can realistically flip are

NV Dean Heller

Maybe, maybe Jeff Flake in AZ

the rest are pretty much 100% Rethug safe seats (MS, TX, TN, NE, UT, WY)



2020


we have to defend these (I don't list the safe ones) the positive thing is that all are winnable for us

Massachusetts Ed Markey (Charlie Baker would make it tough)
Michigan Gary Peters
Minnesota Al Franken (second safest)
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen
New Jersey Cory Booker (safest)
New Mexico Tom Udall (safe unless Martinez waits to run against him)
Virginia Mark Warner


and the Rethugs have to Defend these (all the rest are safe)

Colorado Cory Gardner (by far our best hope to flip)
Maine Susan Collins (if she retires is much less safe for the Repubs, if not, it is safe)
North Carolina Thom Tillis (decent shot to flip)


I would say we gain 1 or 2 seats, not a chance for 3, unless Collins retires, plus we have to defend ALL 7 I listed



2022


we defend these

Colorado Michael Bennet
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan



Rethugs have to defend these


Arizona John McCain (probably retires, as he would be 92 at end of his term if he runs)
Indiana Todd Young
Missouri Roy Blunt
North Carolina Richard Burr
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey
Wisconsin Ron Johnson

I could see us picking up 3 to 4 net, but that will not be enough to pull back the majority



bottom line, we are probably looking at at least 8 years straight of Rethug senate control, and if things go truly shit in 2018, maybe a supermajority control for 2 years. This all depends on Trump not blowing up the world or getting impeached, so who the hell knows.


Overall, looks like disarray to me.