Is the U.S. on course for a breakup? [View all]

[singed.dude]

Thirty years ago (late 1980's), I considered the possibility that the U.S. would eventually breakup into five or six countries aligned geographically or economically. For example, Texas would eventually become a nation again, but Texas would also include New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Louisiana. The breakup would be caused by political divisions that were evident in the the Reagan era.

Now, given the political climate of the last 9 years, my gut feeling is that the probability of a breakup is now significantly higher. Three factors lead me to this belief:

1. Increased negativity of conservative political beliefs and ideology.

2. Increased differences in economic success among the states. According to Business Insider (RANKED: The economies of all 50 US states and Washington, DC, from worst to best), among the top 15 states are: Washington state, District of Columbia, Colorado, Massachussetts, California, Oregon, New York, New Hampshire, and Minnesota - blue states. All but one of the bottom 13 states in the same list are red states.

3. Increased intolerance. This is rather obvious, given the political rhetoric since June 16, 2015 when Trump descended the escalator and announced his candidacy for President.

If what we have seen so far in the past 9 years continues unabated, in my opinion, there is better than a 50/50 chance that the U.S. will break up during the time frame between 2020-2030.

My concept of the breakup:

1. California will be the first state to secede and declare sovereignty (call it the California Republic, or CR).

2. If the CR is successful, Oregon and Washington will secede, and join the CR (call it CR+).

3. If the CR+ is successful, Hawaii will secede and join the CR+.

4. New England states, New York, and possibly 3 other states in the Northeast will secede, then join together to form a new country. Or, they may petition Canada for admission.

5. Depending the level of success of the new countries, other states like Colorado and New Mexico may secede and form their own country, or possibly join the CR+.

6. Arizona and Nevada might secede and join the CR+, depending on those states' demographic trends over the next 20 years.

7. If the CR+ and the new country formed from the NE states are successful, Texas secedes.

8. If all of the above happens, Alaska will secede and become independent.