Why Did We Lose And How Can We Win?

[regnaD kciN]

53. And she wound up ahead by almost as much afterwards...

People neglect that HRC's poll numbers took a dive in the days immediately after Comey's letter, but had recovered by the weekend before the election. It's convenient to blame Comey, but I'm not convinced that his letter was the tipping point.

What is more crucial is that there remained an unusually-large number of undecided voters right up until the end. I was pretty uneasy when I noticed that, because it seemed pretty much the same dynamic as the Brexit election earlier that year. Conventional wisdom says that, by-and-large, the undecided vote will break roughly the same way as those in the same area who have already made up their minds, but I'm not sure that always applies. It seems my totally-unscientific rule of thumb (not just with Brexit, but with several other elections around the world I've followed before) that, when the undecideds get over a certain percentage and remain that way to the end (especially when the choices are so crystal clear), they will tend to go against the conventional wisdom and vote for the side that guarantees to "shake up the status quo" -- particularly if that side also appeals to their fears and prejudices. Sadly, Brexit was a textbook example, and so was our election.