General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Tom Perez: "We need to be looking at whether this election was rigged by Trump & his buddy Putin" [View all]NewJeffCT
(56,848 posts)Before the Comey letter, Clinton had just crushed Trump in the 3rd debate and the ABC News tracking poll had her over the important 50% threshold, while Trump was below 40% - I think it was 51-38%? The day after the letter comes out, the tracking poll tanked and Trump surged to a 44-43% lead, a flip of 14 points in one day! Without that letter, Clinton likely would have continued to climb in the polls and all those Trump voters that decided in the last week would have either stayed home or voted 3rd party (and, maybe a few vote Clinton).
While Clinton ended up recovering a small lead in the ABC news poll, she never came anywhere close to that 13 point lead.
Somewhere around 10-12% of the electorate decided in the last week and around 75% of them voted for Trump. Just doing the math, that means around 13-14 million decided after the Comey letter came out and 75% of them voted Trump, or 9.5 to 10 million. Let's say that without that letter, conservatively, those 13-14 million split 50-50. That means Trump would have gotten 3 million fewer votes overall, or 6.5 to 7 million.
Those extra votes swing MI, PA and WI to Clinton, as well as FL and NC. Possibly Arizona as well.