When a loss is a win: 25-point swing in Kansas House race could mean Democratic landslide in 2018 [View all]

[applegrove]

http://shareblue.com/when-a-loss-is-a-win-25-point-swing-in-kansas-house-race-could-mean-democratic-landslide-in-2018/

by Matthew Chapman

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On Tuesday, something amazing happened in the special election for Kansas’s 4th Congressional District, vacated by Republican Rep. Mike Pompeo when he was named Donald Trump’s CIA director. Democratic Army veteran and civil rights lawyer James Thompson squared off against Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes.

This district, encompassing the city of Wichita and a large part of southern Kansas, was never supposed to be competitive. Republicans have held it for 24 years. It is the district where Republican mega-donor Charles Koch lives. In 2016, Trump carried it by 27 points, while Pompeo himself enjoyed a 32-point blowout last November.

But it became obvious in the final few days that the race was going to be shockingly close. Estes struggled to fundraise, and even some Republican operatives admitted Thompson ran a far superior campaign. At the last minute, Republicans scrambled to save Estes with ads, robocalls from Trump and Mike Pence, and a joint rally with Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX).

Ultimately, Thompson lost, but only by 7 points — a 25-point swing toward Democrats. Despite the fact voter turnout in non-presidential races typically favors the GOP, they underperformed their 2016 results in every single county, most of them by double digits. Early voting indicated even many registered Republicans voted for Thompson.


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