Against all odds, a communist soars in French election polls

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Except that Macron, in the centre, is highly likely to beat Le Pen in the runoff

if he gets through. Which is not guaranteed, because his support is not firm. Le Monde gives the picture:



While Le Pen's support is 85% 'definite', and Fillon, though in 4th, is 80% definite, Melenchon and Macron's definite support is down in the 60s. And between then is the hapless Hamon, whose 7.5% vote is even less certain - and they might go to either of those two.

In the second round, Macron is the strongest, Le Pen the weakest:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/hold-different-second-round-scenarios-would-play-french-election/

(graphic at link, but I can't copy it - in all the possible 2nd round matchups between these 4 leading candidates, Macron wins all, with Melenchon the closest to beating him, at 46-54; Melenchon would beat Le Pen 63-37)

So this looks like a case when the centre is going to win.