What are the odds that the Repubs will win the Senate?

[demwing]

15. RCP shows Dems have a safe 47 seats

to the Republican's safe 45

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html

In the tossup sates Nelson (FL), and Kaine (VA) have leads, and Warren (MA) is in a deadlock - but does anyone expect Scott Brown to win? With HCR in the bag, I'm betting MA Dems will turn out to take Kennedy's seat back. Intrade also gives Warren an edge over Brown, if only slightly.

That gives us 50. With Biden, 51.

Wisconsin is interesting. Obama is very popular there, but Thompson (R) is the favored Senate candidate. The big question is what affect will we see if Scott Walker gets indicted? The Dem in WI - Baldwin - does well against all other Republican primary candidates. If Walker goes down, Wisconsin could feel some buyers remorse over their recall vote, and toss out the Republicans.

The "also rans" are Heitkamp in ND (which is an open seat and a tossup), and then Berkeley in NV, Tester in MT and McCaskill in MO who are all trailing in their races. Of those last three, Berkeley is gaining on the Repub, and might have a shot if Nevada turnout favors Dems.

A real wild card race is over the open seat in Indiana. Indiana was Dick Lugar's old seat, but he was beaten in the (R) primary by a Tea Party clown named Mourdock. Polls show Lugar would have won the GE easily, but Mourdock can't get an edge against Donnelly (D), and may not be able to pull enough Independent voters to seal the deal. Rasmussen has the race tied at 42%, and an earlier Honey/DePauw poll in March showed the race tied at 35%.

I'd say that despite the odds given at Intrade, Dems have a better than 50% chance of holding the Senate. I predict we lose three existing seats and flip two red seats (three, if you count MA), walking away with a narrow majority, (52/48).