Why Mattis versus Kim Jong-Un Will End Badly for Us All

[flamingdem]

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The Pentagon’s belief that sustained deterrence rests on communicating resolve through military posturing rather than through upholding commitments is in keeping with an expectation that war in Korea would be Kim Jong-Un’s responsibility, not America’s. A U.S. general assigned to Korea recently told the press, “Our biggest concern is that he’s going to miscalculate. That’s always our concern.” This kind of thinking overlooks the interdependence of North Korean strategic decision-making with our own. A North Korean attack is most likely in response to it misinterpreting America’s aggressive signaling as something more dramatic or imminent than Washington intends.

In fairness, the U.S. military’s faith in the ability to signal resolve through military assets predates the Trump administration. Some version of the deterrence formula above was occasionally espoused by military counterparts when I served in the Pentagon during the Obama administration. The difference is that the Obama administration was notoriously risk-averse, and the White House micromanaged the Department of Defense, allowing it very little discretion on policy matters. But the Trump administration appears to be a much more permissive — even enabling — environment for such coercive beliefs, if only because of Mattis’s reputation as a hawk and the prominence of the Pentagon in President Trump’s national security policy to date.

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