What are the odds that the Repubs will win the Senate?

[cojoel]

22. This is my personal analysis

All of this assumes reasonably fair elections (which is a pretty rash assumption in this day and age). The Democrats need to win 20 seats to stay at 50. More is better.

Very Likely Stay Dem (13): CA DE HI MD MI MN NJ NY OH PA RI WA WV

Very Likely to Stay Ind (1): VT (Bernie causes with Dems)

Very Likely to Flip Dem (0):

Very Likely to Flip Rep to Ind (1): ME (I am assuming Angus King will caucus with Democratic members if he is elected)

Very Likely to Flip Ind to Dem (1): CT (Lieberman caucused with Dems)

Very Likely Stay Rep (6): AZ MS TN TX UT WY

Very Likely to Flip Rep (1): NE

Probably Stay Dem (2): NM WI* (much to worry about here)

Possible to Flip Dem (3): IN MA NV

Probably Stay Rep (0):

Possible to Flip Rep (5): MO ND MT VA FL

This leads to Probably or higher: Dems 18 - Reps 7 - Contested 8

Of the contested, I think we have a reasonable chance at MA, NV, and FL (FL is at 19% undecided which is large). We have a modest chance at NV and VA. I think IN, MO, ND, and MT are long-shots but not out of the question as polling is close. We also need to work very hard in the other elections anyway, and especially in NM and WI.