How can anyone be so sure the ACHA will die in the Senate?

[haele]

8. If McConnell doesn't want to nuke the filibuster again...

It depends on how secure he feels the GOP has a lock on this country. If they're thinking the Coup has already gone down and the Mercers/Kochs have bought enough of the legal underpinnings of this country, he will try to get it to the President on a simple majority.
He hates Obama and everything Obama did. He and a lot of the GOP hierarchy were so insulted that a black man who "hadn't paid his political dues" was elected twice, they need to destroy all traces of him. The GOP may have been resigned and would have suffered through Kerry, or even Saunders - as both of these guys are long-term members of "the club" - but Obama was never supposed to be able to sit behind the desk at the Oval Office, except as a joke when he may have been an invited guest.

Haele