I will join AARP if they destroy Chump Care.

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. Just a guess

The Senate will pass something fairly moderate with some type of state opt out provisions but not one that significantly undermines coverage for other states that want to keep protections intact. Medicaid expansion will still be allowed but Medicaid will be block granted - without serious immediate cuts. But Medicaid costs will be capped with a formula that increases block grants at a rate below the actual rate of growth needed to keep pace with needs. Maybe states will have some kind of opt out regarding Planned Parenthood also. Senate conservatives will count on getting back some of what they want in Conference with the House.

The House won't like what it gets from the Senate, but the final legislation will still be based on the Senate Bill, probably with deeper Medicaid cuts than the original Senate version (to use for tax cuts for the rich) and a few more scraps for the House conservatives. I give that a 55% chance of passing - because all the Republicans know they have to change something about "Obamacare" after pissing and moaning about it for 8 years.