If the Montana elections demonstrate anything, it's that white people will not save the Dems

[Awsi Dooger]

58. 39-40% of the white vote is enough to save Democrats

That's nationwide. Hillary managed 37%, if I remember correctly.

Her messaging in the debates was inept. I sensed it at the time and posted it here. Trump may have wobbled through those debates but he took every simplistic opportunity to spotlight Ohio and blame job loss on NAFTA. Those white working class voters were lapping that up, in Ohio and everywhere else, siphoning away small but critical percentage.

Hillary would be president today if she had any clue regarding the simmering unease of those middle class white working types. Somehow the Clintons missed it. Bill said he was surprised at the 2014 midterm results. That was astonishing ignorance. I know plenty of those SAM (Simplistic Angry Male) types based on living in Las Vegas for 25 years and frequenting sportsbooks throughout. That demographic is flooded with white transplants from the South and Midwest. They've always been antagonistic, distrusting and mocking of Democratic politics but it soared in intensity and hatred during Obama's terms and particularly the second one. It was unmistakable. The 2014 midterm was essentially a warmup. I'm not sure if the Affordable Care Act pushed them over the edge. Something happened.

If Hillary early in the first debate had merely sensed the danger and taken the initiative, she would have cut off Trump's fearful path and been able to overcome Comey as well. All she had to do was emphasize that one of her great concerns was job loss and economic conditions in the great manufacturing states, that previously hard working men and women could graduate high school and get a job in the mills, etc. and forge a great life for themselves and their children. Now, through no fault of their own, that opportunity is diminished and we're working on every solution. Trump will blame everything on NAFTA and other trade deals. It's not NAFTA. It's technology. The steamship had its heyday. So did the railroads...

Something like that. It's off the top of my head. Not perfect. But far superior to anything Hillary offered. It's what Joe Biden was talking about recently when he said Hillary lacked a message to middle America. Keep in mind we're talking about holding a vital 2-3% of key demographics, not attempting a magic act like winning South Carolina, Alaska or Utah.

All three of those states were actually proposed toward Hillary at one point or another. Still makes me shake. Trump was peddling his crap to people willing to swallow whole while we were in delusion regarding a landslide. I saw posts here asserting double digit margin. Apparently rural whites weren't going to participate.

State by state is another matter. Montana today is like the nation itself in Reagan's era, with basically 90% whites comprising the electorate. We have virtually no margin for error in that setting. It has to be an ideal candidate and less than perfect from the other side. People don't like the word moderate around here. Fine. Just make sure you understand that if you nominate a perceived liberal in a state like Montana it's like a golfer who attempts a 400 yard carry over water. Splash or crash. No difference.