This! This! This all day long. Without comment

[progree]

98. You need to read up on polling, and on margins of sampling error

Last edited Mon May 29, 2017, 09:47 AM - Edit history (2)

and what makes you think he is a college math teacher? Anyone who can't convert a probability of 0.0016 into a percentage very unlikely has taught above the elementary level. I doubt he or she is even a math teacher, but it's possible; I've had some dumb ones.

>> Inferential statistics has margins of error to account for the factors which make sampling inaccurate. And sampling involves ascertaining that the sample is representative of the group. <<

Well they do try. BzaDem explains it well. Please read and absorb. You can also Google polling margin of error. I've read a number of them in the past. Here's just one example:


-----------------Begin excerpt from Pew Research --------------------------------------------------
It is also important to bear in mind that the sampling variability described by the margin of error is only one of many possible sources of error that can affect survey estimates. Different survey firms use different procedures or question wording that can affect the results. Certain kinds of respondents may be less likely to be sampled or respond to some surveys (for instance, people without internet access cannot take online surveys). Respondents might not be candid about controversial opinions when talking to an interviewer on the phone, or might answer in ways that present themselves in a favorable light (such as claiming to be registered to vote when they are not).

For election surveys in particular, estimates that look at “likely voters” rely on models and predictions about who will turn out to vote that may also introduce error. Unlike sampling error, which can be calculated, these other sorts of error are much more difficult to quantify and are rarely reported. But they are present nonetheless, and polling consumers should keep them in mind when interpreting survey results.

More: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/

----------------End excerpt------------------------------------------------------------