General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Sorry, Bernie but the Democrats know whose side they are on and whose side they have always been on [View all]ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Early voting, and late voting by mail are two reasons for that. There are more:
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, youll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit/
When Bernie, who is not a Democrat, bashes Democrats, of course members of a group called "Democratic Underground" are going to be angry about that. Don't you think?